Summary
We have studied the monthly, quarterly, and annual returns in the stock market since 1980. February is not one of the best months. On average, stocks rise less than 0.2% in the shortest month of the year. Only the months of August and September have generated weaker average returns. There have been some strong Februarys, including 7% gains in 1986, 1991, and 1998, as well as a 5.5% surge in 2015. But there have been some clunkers as well: a 6% drop in 1982; a 9% plunge in 2001 during the "dot-com" bust; an 11% collapse near the bottom of the Great Recession and bear market in 2009; and, of course, the 20% bomb in February 2020, as the coronavirus began to spread around the world and the economy tumbled into a recession. Last year was better, with a 5.2% gain during the month. This time around, February is starting off with a bit of positive momentum, as January's returns were strong. Earnings season continues and, as usual, companies are outperforming Street expectations. However, equity investors got a surprise recently from the DeepSeek news that the domestic artificial intelligence industry may face s
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