Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers: Willson Contreras surging, new closers flying up early draft boards for 2025 - chof 360 news

It's that time of year. MLB spring training feels only inches away, pitchers and catchers report in about a week, and fantasy baseball drafts kick into high gear. That means it's time for us to take an even deeper dive into the current draft market, looking at whose stock is rising or falling and who might still be a good value in our upcoming drafts.

In this article, I'm going to look at the biggest "risers" and "fallers" in fantasy baseball drafts since the draft season began. NFBC platforms have the most accessible data, so we're pulling from their drafts and looking at every draft from the start of November until the end of January. A huge hat tip for this goes to Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List, who put together an awesome list that tracked the ADP over that time. If you're a Pitcher List member, he also created rolling graphs which you can access with their PL Pro tools to see how a player's ADP has changed over time.

For this article, we're not going to look at just ADP but the percentage of ADP cost. If we looked at raw ADP changes, we'd see dozens of players who moved up or down 100 or more spots, and it would just be players who gained or lost starting jobs this offseason.

When we sort by the percentage of ADP cost, we can see the players who rise and fall the most based on what it could cost us to draft them. A player moving from pick 50 to pick 31 (Garrett Crochet) may not seem like a lot, but it's a massive shift in the cost it takes to acquire them in drafts since those early picks hold so much weight.

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2025 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers

The first three names on here go without saying. When drafts kicked off in November, none of Trevor Megill, Ryan Pressly, or Jeff Hoffman were set to begin the season as their team's closer. Now, Devin Williams was traded to the Yankees, Pressly was traded to the Cubs, and Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays, so each of them will begin the season with the closer gig. I prefer Hoffman of the bunch, but I don't have any of them inside my top-10 closers with Hoffman at RP11, Pressly at RP16, and Megill at RP17.

Early NFBC drafts are also draft-and-hold formats where managers draft 50 rounds, so catchers tend to be pushed down the draft boards a bit since most teams will draft three or four of them. In January, you're starting to see regular FAAB leagues draft and catchers are pushed up the board since nobody wants to have to sludge through the wire to find a closer. That has benefited Willson Contreras, who will be the starting first baseman for the Cardinals this year. That means likely 550 to 600 plate appearances, which is hard for any catcher to record. Given how good Willson is with the bat, he's one of my favorite catchers to target this year and I have him as my 59th-ranked player overall in two-catcher formats.

Matt Shaw is rising up draft boards because there's a good chance he will enter the season as the Cubs' starting third baseman since they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros. That move also benefited Paredes significantly because the home stadium environment in Houston is much better suited to his pull-power approach. Shaw has a much higher upside and I expect his ADP to continue to climb if that starting job begins to seem more secure. I have him ranked 185th overall right now.

Garrett Crochet also saw his value increase after being traded to the Red Sox, and Michael Conforto got a boost after signing with the Dodgers. Conforto will still only play against right-handed pitchers, but Dodger Stadium is going to be a much better park for his left-handed swing and the lineup around him is better, so Conforto could still be a value around pick 300. Although, he's better in daily moves leagues.

People might be freaked out by Lawrence Butler rising to an ADP of 64, but that's just a course correction from his low ADP before. Butler hit .300/.345/.553 in 61 games in the second half of last season with 13 home runs, 12 steals, and a 19.8% strikeout rate. He has always been a player who adjusted well to levels and improved in each subsequent chance, so it's not shocking that he got better in this third attempt at MLB at-bats. Now he's moving to a minor-league ballpark that should be better for his power. I currently have him as my 68th-ranked player, so this ADP isn't too crazy for me.

Wyatt Langford also looked a bit better in the second half of the season after coming back from injury, hitting 11 home runs and stealing 11 bases in 61 games. He hit .251 in the second half and .254 in the first half, so there was no real batting average jump, but he did improve his strikeout rate noticeably. He's a young player and a well-regarded prospect, so we should expect improvement in his second MLB season. However, he also plays for a team with a crowded outfield, and his second half wasn't better than what Lawrence Butler did, so I'm not sure why Langford is going 24 picks earlier. I have him ranked 64th just before Butler, so I'd rather wait and draft Butler, who is falling a bit farther in drafts.

The other consequence of Willson Contreras being the starting first baseman in St. Louis is that Ivan Herrera is likely going to be the starting catcher. He hit .301/.372/.428 in 259 plate appearances last year with five home runs and five steals, so the offensive upside is there. He's likely going to have to fight for time with Pedro Pages, but Herrera would be a tremendous pick at this cost if we felt really good about him getting over 400 plate appearances. It's probably worth a gamble.

Jesus Luzardo and Jung Hoo Lee saw big rises because they are both healthy. Luzardo will also now be with the Phillies which is a big boost for his team context, even if it's a huge park downgrade. Lee should also be set to start the season as the Giants' lead-off hitter, and the 26-year-old hit .262/.310/.331 in 37 games in his MLB debut with two home runs and two steals but just an 8.2% strikeout rate. His strong defense will keep him on the field for over 500 plate appearances and he will get on base a decent amount in front of Willy Adames, which is good for his fantasy value. However, he's really only going to contribute in batting average and runs with some chip-in steals. I have him as my 243rd-ranked player, so this new ADP feels fair to me.

Kristian Campbell also seems to be nearing a starting job since the Red Sox have not signed anybody to play second base as of this publishing. However, people are writing off Vaughn Grissom too soon. Grissom is only one year older than Campbell and had gone 62-for-216 (.287) with five home runs, five steals, and a 49/13 K/BB ratio before his injury-plagued 2024 season. Considering the Red Sox traded Chris Sale to get him, they're likely going to give Grissom a chance to win the job, but Campbell was perhaps the single fastest-rising prospect in the minors last season, so if he is red hot in the spring, he could steal the job away. That makes him worth a gamble, but he's likely an avoid for me (even as a Red Sox fan) if his ADP keeps climbing because there's a good chance Grissom starts the year as Boston's second baseman.

I'm not sure why Christian Yelich and Teoscar Hernandez saw such boosts. Teoscar did re-sign with the Dodgers, but he always seemed likely to head back there and an ADP of 58 feels fair for him. I guess drafters in draft-and-hold formats weren't as enticed by Yelich's potential injuries since there are no waivers in those leagues, but he continues to produce and projections still love him. I think Yelich will remain a good hitter, but I can't see him stealing 20+ bases this season, so I put him at 15 steals and that dropped him to my 140th-ranked player, so maybe the ADP should not have gone up.

Ryan Mountcastle is somebody I've always been a fan of, and I'd have to assume his ADP improvement has to do with the news that came out this offseason that Baltimore would be moving their left field fences in and lowering the wall. That should be good news for Mountcastle's power production. We're also coming off the second season in a row where Mountcastle saw his production dip due to injury; it was a battle with vertigo in 2023 and a wrist injury in 2024. Mountcastle slashed .273/.317/.460 in his first 78 games of 2024 with 11 home runs, 40 RBI, and a 20% strikeout rate. However, he hurt his wrist in July and was put on the IL. When he came back, he hit just two home runs and struck out over 25% of the time over his final 46 games. The 27-year-old set a career-high zone contact rate and continues to post 80th-percentile exit velocities, so there is more upside to tap into if he remains healthy, and a 25-home run season wouldn't be out of the question. I have him ranked 190th right now, which means I believe he's a value at his current ADP.

Matt McLain could have seen his stock rise in the off-season because we got confirmation that he's healthy and will be ready to start the season, but it also could have been the news that the Reds will try to move him to the outfield, which would allow him to avoid the logjam in the infield and get more consistent playing time. That is, of course, if he can hang out there defensively. Offensively, the big question mark is how will last season's shoulder surgery, which kept McLain out all year, impact his batted ball quality. At his best, McLain is a patient hitter who’s always hit for a high batting average while possessing 20 stolen base upside. McLain has some minor swing-and-miss in his game, but his 28.5% strikeout rate in 2023 feels flukey given his minor league numbers, and if his pull and fly ball rates inch closer to what he did in the minors, then he could hit 25 home runs in Great American Ballpark. I currently have him ranked 95th overall, which is right around his ADP, so I'm happy to draft shared of him because he's a high-upside but risky fantasy pick.

2025 Fantasy Baseball ADP Fallers

Zach Neto, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Nico Hoerner all saw their ADPs fall because they're all likely to start the season on the IL. We're hearing reports that Acuna is targeting a return to the field at the beginning of May, and Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery on his throwing forearm over the off-season and said himself, "I think I’d do myself and the team a bit of a disservice if I rush this process in any way. I think it is kind of in my nature to push towards that direction. But…effort doesn’t really heal your tendons." Considering Hoerner has not started throwing yet, it's becoming harder to see him being ready for opening day.

Neto has an even more confusing timeline in his recovery from right shoulder surgery. Angels general manager Perry Minasian said Neto was coming along “as good as we can hope. No timeframe. He’ll come to spring and we’ll see where he’s at. When he’s ready to play, he’ll play.” Considering a right shoulder injury sapped Matt McLain of his entire 2024 season, it's hard to feel optimistic about Neto being fully healthy to start the season. It might be a case where we need to wait for more information in spring training, which has people worried, and rightfully so.

Robert Suarez was lights out for the Padres in 2024, posting a 2.77 ERA with 36 saves and nine wins as the team's closer, so why is he falling in drafts? Well, for starters, Suarez is 34 years old and only has one year of MLB production as a closer, so some people are wary that he can repeat what he did in 2024. Another reason is that the Padres will enter 2025 with Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada at the back of the bullpen too. Adam came over from the Rays at the trade deadline but posted a 1.95 ERA in 73 2/3 innings between the two teams in 2024. There is a legitimate concern that he will take some save chances away from Suarez, which is why I have Suarez as my 15th-ranked reliever, and Adam ranked as RP27.

Ozzie Albies and Willy Adames are two players whose value fell back to levels I think are more fitting. I'm not really "down" on either of them and would be happy to have them on my team, but I believe the prices had been a bit too high. Adames is a talented player, but he stole 21 bases in a contract year after never stealing more than eight in a season before. I'd expect closer to 12 steals for him in 2025, and he's moving from the 6th-best park for right-handed power, according to Statcast Park factors, to the worst park for right-handed power. Albies also has battled injuries in two of the last three seasons and feels unlikely to ever get back to his 20 stolen base peak. If he's a 22-home run and 13-steal player in that offense, that's valuable, but I have him ranked 78th and Adames 94th, so these new ADPs feel more accurate to me.

Spencer Strider and Felix Bautista both saw their ADPs fall due to injury recovery as well. Bautista feels like less of an issue to me. We know he'll be healthy for Opening Day, but the Orioles have also talked about not taxing him too much early in the season since he missed all of 2024, so I'd expect him to split save chances for the first couple of months. Still, I have him as my RP8 so this ADP feels fair. I have more concerns about Strider. The last we heard is that he could be back in June, but he's also coming back from Tommy John surgery with an internal brace, so we have far less data on how quickly pitchers recover from that. What we do know is that command is usually the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery, and Strider is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, so command of his arsenal is incredibly important, especially with his slider since he uses it for called strikes and swinging strikes. If Strider is back in June but not the Strider we've come to know until July or August, then can you really take him in the top 100 picks? I have him as my SP46 right now.

01:29

Fantasy 2B ranks: Betts at No. 1; Bogaerts a value

Eric Samulski shares why second base will present an “interesting dilemma” in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts, including why managers should expect to pay up early or target value later on when eyeing the position.

I'm not sure why Shane Baz had his ADP fall. Is it because Drew Rasmussen was announced as a rotation candidate in 2025? Even if the Rays have six good starters, Baz is going to be in the rotation. He's 25 years old and was one of their top prospects before being hurt. Last season in his return to the mound, he posted a 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 69/27 K/BB ratio in 79.1 innings. And that was WITHOUT his best pitch. Before the injury, Baz featured a wipeout slider that had a 24.3% swinging strike rate and 36% Ideal Contact Rate. He could throw it for strikes but also whiffs. Last season, that pitch was flatter and with worse command. It posted just an 11% swinging strike rate but still didn't give up hard contact. Yet, Baz responded by making his curve much better in 2024, registering a 16.6% swinging strike rate and also a 90th-percentile zone rate as a pitch he could command. That change kept Baz as a solid starter, but if he uses his off-season to get his slider even close to what it was before the injury, he could be an easy top-30 starter. I have him SP44 right now and will have tons of shares at this price.

Parker Meadows and new teammate Gleyber Torres both saw their ADP fall, but I'm not sure why. George Bissell had Meadows as a breakout candidate in our staff hitter article, and I fully support George's belief that the .296/.340/.500 triple-slash line with five homers and five steals over Meadow's final 47 games feels like an example of his true talent. He's going to lead off against right-handed pitching and could hit 20 home runs with 25 steals and a good batting average. He also performed pretty well against lefties in 2024, so there's a chance he still starts against lefties but hits lower in the order. I gave Meadows just a .255 average for the year, but he comes out as my 106th-ranked hitter, so there is tons of value where he's going in drafts.

Gleyber is getting a much-needed fresh start in Detroit. In 2024, he maintained much of the contact gains we saw in 2023 and chased outside of the zone even less, but his surface-level numbers still regressed. His pull and fly ball rates were also nearly identical to 2023, but his contact quality suffered. It's possible that Torres was too passive, taking more called strikes and getting into worse counts than in 2023. Pitchers also started pitching him away more, which may have led to softer contact. At the end of the day, his approach wasn’t drastically different from what we saw in 2023 and while he won’t get a power boost at Comerica Park, he could go back to being a .270 hitter with 15-20 home run power in an everyday role in Detroit. I gave him a .265 average and eight steals, and he came out as my 210th-ranked player, so that's still a value at his ADP, and I think he makes for a good MIF target.

I think the ADP drop for Alexis Diaz is a reaction to his poor numbers in 2024 with just a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 12.8% walk rate. He has always walked a ton of people, but the dip in strikeouts made him more hittable and caused both his WHIP and ERA to soar. Much of that was earned, so the ratios may be a problem this year, and those 28 saves felt a bit flukey. With left-hander Taylor Rogers now in Cincinnati, it could be a bit of a bullpen share, so I have Diaz as my RP24 for 2025.

Of the other starting pitchers on here, I'm most curious why Yoshinobu Yamamoto saw his ADP drop. The concerns over Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen make sense to me since both of them have always given up lots of hard contact, and it came back to bite them in 2024. They both also battled arm injuries and have had huge workloads in recent years, so I have Gallen at SP35 and Gausman at SP54 right now. The drops in ADPs feel right to me. However, Yamamoto was tremendous when healthy in 2024, posting a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and nearly 29% strikeout rate. We have plenty of data that supports the idea that the second season is often better for players coming over from foreign leagues, and Yamamoto showcased a solid four-seam fastball, elite splitter, and pretty solid curveball, which he can use to all hitters. The Dodgers have a crowded rotation, but I still expect 140 innings of really good production from Yamamoto in 2025 so I have him at SP10 and would take him at this ADP if he fell in drafts since I often wait to draft my first starting pitcher.