Italy on Saturday is not, as Dan Biggar claims, the biggest game for Wales in a few decades, but it could just prove the country’s darkest day.
In the Eternal City, a 14th defeat in succession would merely confirm to sections of the Welsh support that a repeat of the Grand Slam successes of the previous 20 years is not merely a long way in the distance – but perhaps resides in the land of never-ever.
As if Rome does not have enough ruins. A record-equalling eighth championship defeat in a row would make unprecedented back-to-back whitewashes appear as much an inevitability as a Warren Gatland dismissal, a little over two years since the Kiwi returned for a celebrated second coming.
No doubt, a switch in the hot seat would, in certain quarters, inspire hope of another red-shirted resurrection, but for many it would not be nearly as straightforward.
“I can’t see us beating Italy and nobody else in this Six Nations, so most probably, the count will go up to 17 losses,” Lee Jarvis, the former Wales fly-half, told Telegraph Sport. “Yeah, Gatland would be gone after that, but so what? We will keep having the same results until the whole game in Wales is changed.”
It is a doomsday scenario apparently shared by enough to project a palpable feeling of apathy for this particular Italian job. “Of course, we want Wales to win – for the young players if nobody else, because I sort of feel sorry for them being put in there before they are ready,” Tom Shanklin, the former Wales and British and Irish Lions centre, said.
“But there is a danger it could paper over the actual deep flaws that lie within Welsh rugby. We will see what happens after the Six Nations, whether there will be a change of voice at the top, to me that can’t do any harm, but everyone should realise it will require a lot more than that.
“I broadcast on the URC [United Rugby Championship] every week and nothing I see makes me think, ‘Oh there is all this young talent so we’ll be fine and win Grand Slams in a few years – or even five’. The problem is there was no succession plan after all those top guys and legends retired. I said this three or four years ago and I got slammed for it.
“The Western Mail [the national newspaper of Wales] came back at me and assured me that there were all these great kids coming through. Well, where are they? In truth they are being failed by the system.”
The optimistic in the hillsides should be alarmed by Shanklin’s comments, because he was part of the youth movement at the start of the century that eventually turned national despondency into a Max Boyce comeback. Under Steve Hansen, Gatland’s countryman, Wales underwent a brutal rebuilding stage that featured 13 defeats from 15 Six Nations matches, the first loss against Italy and 50-point stuffings by New Zealand, South Africa, England, Ireland and Argentina.
Game in need of a ‘domestic overhaul’
However, from these pits, the golden generation emerged to win four Grand Slams and six Six Nations titles in 16 years from 2005. If the Dragons rose from the ashes back then, why not now?
“Maybe they will, but it will take time and a domestic overhaul,” Shanklin said. “There hadn’t been a Grand Slam in more than two decades – since 1978 – but under Steve, we showed flashes of what we could do, especially in the 2003 World Cup where we ran New Zealand close and probably should have accounted for England in the quarters.
“The regions were also in much better shape then, not scraping for places in the middle of the pack like now.”
Indeed, the Ospreys, Cardiff and Scarlets were regularly at the business end of the Celtic League and European competition. They were powered not so much by the burgeoning home-bred talent, but more by imports such as Jerry Collins, Marty Holah, Xavier Rush, Justin Marshall, David Lyons, Regan King and many more.
“It was an amazing time,” says Lions hooker Richard Hibbard, who was at the Ospreys. “We were about three deep on internationals in every position at one point. I do genuinely believe, from those foreign imports, that’s what gave us that golden era that followed Wales across the board. You had such good senior pros, they guided you, setting their own examples.”
Shanklin concurs. “There were those against the imports, because they said they were blocking Welsh talent. We didn’t appreciate how important they were for our players’ improvement. You had to be playing at the top level to get in the regions’ XVs. The boys were prepared when they stepped into the national team. Now there aren’t any top-class imports. The regions can’t afford them. And if they could, say, have offered Jordie Barrett the same as he is getting at Leinster, he would pick Dublin because he knew he’d be challenging for trophies.”
Shanklin does not necessarily agree with the well-voiced argument that Wales’s resources would be better spent on two regions instead of four. He does wonder if the Welsh Rugby Union poured more funds into one region whether that could be beneficial, but acknowledges that the infighting makes this almost impossible.
Instead, Wales waits to see the details of the latest deal to be struck between the union and the regions. Like Sam Warburton, Shanklin is pleased about the reassembling of a national academy, because the dismantling of that celebrated framework clearly played a role in the collapse in the supply line since.
After years of wrangling, the regions took charge of the four regional academies themselves in 2012 and the conveyor belt was thus shut off. While the Wales coaches had enjoyed close input into bringing along the next superstars, there instantly became a damaging disconnect.
“It’s difficult when you are dealing with 18 to 20-year-olds, who by then, have become a bit set in their ways,” Shanklin said. “You want to get hold of them early. But now they are being developed whilst actually in the Wales squad. You just can’t do that. What we really need to target now is the 15 to 18-year group, because we are not going to get a good crop through until the national team gets its hands on them, like previously. There’s been a massive gap in quality coming through.”
Shanklin’s message is that the public will have to remain patient. “The danger with that is that in the meantime we could lose a generation of fans because people will turn off and find another sport that entertains them,” he said. “Because Wales are not gripping the imagination of the public are they, even in defeat? We’re playing a low brand, pragmatic style of rugby that is nowhere near the standard. It’s very worrying if indifference wins out.”
As far as Jarvis is concerned that is already happening. The 48-year-old has coached since he was a player – most recently with Rhydyfelin, his home club in the Valleys – but recently he has decided to put away the whistle and the cones.
“If I’m honest, I’ve lost a bit of love for the game,” Jarvis said. “I’m not saying it about my club, because the lads are great, but I don’t think the commitment is there at grass-roots rugby like it was before and that’s why clubs are struggling to put out sides on weekends. And, unfortunately, it’s the same with youth rugby. In my opinion, as far as interest goes, now compared to 20 years ago, it’s light years apart.”
