The Roman philosopher Seneca is credited with saying, “Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.”
In sports, some teams prepare better than others. But some also get more opportunities than others.
Luck can take many forms. It can be a fortuitous bounce, particularly with an oblong-ish football that can go any direction after a punt or a fumble hits the ground. It can be an opponent’s baffling, uncharacteristic mistake. And it can be officiating decisions that are 50-50 calls – or just plain wrong.
Consider the Kansas City Chiefs, who are headed to the Super Bowl for a third year in succession. The popular opinion on social media these days is that NFL officials have felt pressure to get Taylor Swift to the Super Bowl; therefore, they give the Chiefs a lot of dubious decisions.
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That’s a far-fetched conspiracy theory, but it’s hard to deny that the Chiefs have been a rather fortunate team this year. They’ve benefited from close but correct decisions like the " target="_blank" class="link"> pass interference call that set up their game-winning field goal against Cincinnati or " target="_blank" class="link"> the nullified Baltimore touchdown in which Isaiah Likely’s toe was maybe an inch out of bounds. (On the play before that, they were fortunate that Lamar Jackson missed a wide-open Zay Flowers in the end zone.)
Then, in the AFC Championship, referees looked to have botched the spot on a quarterback sneak by Buffalo’s Josh Allen, costing the Bills possession of the ball at a crucial time, and Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy was credited with a catch in a truly benevolent piece of work by the officiating crew.
A few bizarre plays went the Chiefs’ way as well. They beat the Raiders when Las Vegas " target="_blank" class="link"> prematurely snapped the ball, leading to a fumble that stopped a potential game-winning drive. They " target="_blank" class="link"> blocked a field goal attempt as time expired to beat the Broncos. Their third-string kicker " target="_blank" class="link"> doinked a field goal through the goalposts as time expired to beat the Chargers.
But the Chiefs aren’t the only team to win several games this year on doinked field goals, last-second plays or inexplicable errors by their opponents. Consider the Washington Commanders.
On 27 October, the Chicago Bears had all but finished off the Commanders. The Bears were going to move to 5-2 on the season, gathering momentum for a playoff push with exciting rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The Commanders were going to fall to 5-3.
Chicago cornerback Tyrique Stevenson was so confident in the win that he turned his back to the snap, taunting Commanders fans as Washington’s own rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, started to scramble and buy time for a Hail Mary. Daniels’ throw landed in a mass of players just short of the goalline. Stevenson out-leaped the crowd and got his hand to the ball, but he only managed to tip it ahead to Washington wide receiver Noah Brown, who barely had to move to make the easy touchdown catch. After the loss, the Bears’ season completely fell apart – they went without a win until the last game of the season to wind up 5-12, changing head coaches along the way.
For the Commanders, this was just one of seven games they won in which they clinched the game in the last six seconds. A walk-off field goal against the Giants. An unsuccessful walk-off two-point conversion by the Saints. Touchdowns in the final seconds against the Eagles and Cowboys. An overtime walk-off touchdown against the Falcons. The most recent was their first playoff game, when Zane Gonzalez’s field-goal attempt doinked off one post and went through as time expired against Tampa Bay. The team’s luck ran out against Philadelphia, when a succession of turnovers and penalties turned a somewhat competitive game into a rout.
Contrast this run of good fortune – and, to be sure, heroic plays – with the misfortune of the Baltimore Ravens. If not for their loss to Kansas City, the Ravens would have hosted their playoff game against the Bills because Baltimore won the head-to-head matchup earlier in the season. Instead, the Ravens " target="_blank" class="link"> traveled to frigid Buffalo. Jackson led the Ravens down the field to score and pull within two points with 1:33 remaining. The two-point conversion was a superbly designed play in which Jackson just needed to complete a simple pass to three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews to tie the game.
Nine times out of 10, Andrews catches Jackson’s pass. He had a crucial catch to get the Ravens within range for the touchdown. But not this time.
Sports journalists, coaches and authors often write about athletic victories as a triumph of the best over the not-quite-as-good. What’s often left out from such lionizations is a simple fact: Luck matters.
As Seneca said, preparation is part of the equation. All the luck in the world wouldn’t have turned this year’s Cleveland Browns or New York Giants into Super Bowl contenders. And after a trouncing of the Commanders, who had knocked out the Detroit Lions, it’s hard to argue that the Philadelphia Eagles aren’t the best team in the NFC and a truly worthy Super Bowl team. The biggest stroke of luck benefiting the Eagles this season was a poor decision within their division, when the New York Giants threw all their money to gaffe-prone quarterback Daniel Jones instead of running back Saquon Barkley, who signed with the Eagles and would surely win this year’s MVP voting if the league wasn’t obsessed with quarterbacks.
But the most accomplished teams and players have all benefited at some point from a fortuitous bounce or lucky positioning, as when Kristine Lilly found herself perfectly placed to get her head up and " target="_blank" class="link"> stop a goal-bound shot that would’ve won the 1999 Women’s World Cup final for China. Or an opponent’s unlikely miscue, as when Soviet Union goalie Vladimir Tretiak conceded a goal on a bad rebound with one second left in the first period of an Olympic hockey game against the USA, and the Soviets overreacted by pulling Tretiak from the game, setting the stage for the “Miracle on Ice.” Or some other bit of good fortune doled out through the inconsistent karma of the sports world – fan interference, a shift in the wind, a misplaced shot that slices into the goal.
Arguably no city in US sports has seen the vicissitudes of sports fortune more than Boston. The Red Sox endured “the Curse of the Bambino,” with generations of agonizing near-misses for 86 years after sending Babe Ruth to the Yankees before winning it all in 2004 — after coming back from 0-3 down in the AL Championship series against the Yankees. The Red Sox won the World Series again in 2007, 2013 and 2018.
The Red Sox run coincided with the New England Patriots winning six Super Bowls in the 2000s and 2010s, a run that was kickstarted in the " target="_blank" class="link"> infamous “Tuck Rule” game in which an obscure rule prolonged a game-tying drive by the Patriots’ backup quarterback, a sixth-round draft pick named Tom Brady.
In the NBA, the Boston Celtics’ dynasty years featured a succession of the game’s greats from Bill Russell to Larry Bird. They also often got a few favorable calls, especially when coach Red Auerbach patrolled the sidelines to “work the refs,” and the ball often took mysterious bounces on the team’s unusual parquet floor. But the Celtics have also dealt with tragedy that goes well beyond wins and losses, with draft pick Len Bias and star player Reggie Lewis each dying suddenly, seven years apart.
We’re now in an era of analytics, when every player’s physical and mental attributes are mapped in excruciatingly precise detail. But all these analytics can tell you is a probability. Pitcher A might get Batter B out 80% of the time. Jackson might complete a particular pass 70% of the time. Academic studies have quantified home advantage and the effect it has on referees.
Brilliant players like Daniels and Patrick Mahomes can improve those odds. If the Chiefs didn’t have top-tier offensive talent and a savvy veteran coach in Andy Reid, no lucky bounces or strange calls would help them win their division nine straight years and reach the Super Bowl five out of six years.
But even if the odds are with a team or against it, every play is a roll of the dice. And even the best players and teams need a lucky roll every now and then.
