The path to Munich suddenly looks more complicated for Liverpool, with Paris Saint-Germain and potentially Real Madrid standing in the way of a Champions League final appearance. Scant reward for finishing top of the 36-team group stage. Sunday is an opportunity to make the road to a record-equalling 20th league title run smooth in comparison, as perhaps it already should be.
Liverpool encounters with Manchester City have been often decisive in Premier League title races and the latest could be no different, although only where Arne Slot’s team are concerned. There is an end-of-an-era feel to Pep Guardiola’s side, wounded by an early exit from the Champions League on Wednesday and desperate to react against adversaries intent on taking their Premier League crown. Deepening City’s malaise, however, would be secondary to rediscovering title-winning form for Slot and deflating Arsenal’s hopes of bridging the gap in the process.
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Liverpool’s performance level has dropped of late but if this is the first serious dip of the season, Slot’s side are not conceding too much ground or too many points. No team has collected more points over the last six games than the Premier League leaders. Both they and Arsenal lead the way with 14 apiece in that period, a tally worth remembering when comparisons are made with last season’s collapse from a position of strength and anxiety is on the rise. Points from below-par performances are supposed to be a positive during a title run-in. Liverpool’s three defeats this year have all come in cup competitions, the last two when Slot fielded much-changed and inexperienced teams. Not that he gets a free pass for the poor FA Cup exit at Plymouth.
Should Liverpool win at the Etihad Stadium – and they have not done so in the league since November 2015 – it will be a monumental step towards winning the club’s 20th league championship. Seven of the final 11 league games are at Anfield and arguably the toughest away assignment remaining will be out of the way. But a more ruthless, clinical display may be necessary, not only to defeat the struggling champions but to ease the tension that is starting to circle around Slot’s leaders.
The Anfield crowd and Liverpool team were gripped by nerves when Wolves threatened to stage a comeback from 2-0 down last Sunday. Andy Robertson signalled to the Kop to calm down at one point. The anxiety is self-induced.
Memories of last season’s stumble are still raw, as are previous title near-misses, and so every point dropped from a game that is there for the taking heightens a sense of foreboding and anxiety. There have been several examples in recent weeks. The draw at Everton – the first of five demanding games in 15 days – might be the most painful having led 2-1 until the 98th minute when five minutes of stoppage time had been signalled. Aston Villa on Wednesday was the most recent. There was an improvement on the Wolves’ and Merseyside derby displays at Villa Park but wastefulness in front of goal and conceding cheaply cost Slot’s side once again.
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Profligacy was not confined to Darwin Núñez, who was on the receiving end of a strong public rebuke from the Liverpool head coach for allowing a glaring miss to affect his subsequent contribution. Liverpool trailed at half-time against Villa after having 10 attempts on goal to the host’s three. Mohamed Salah’s goal was the only one of the first-half attempts that was on target. Villa had two on target, and scored from both.
Slot places great store by xG and will have been bewildered by an interval scoreline of 2-1 to Villa when the xG was 1.43 to 0.43 in Liverpool’s favour. Numerous chances were squandered in the draw at Nottingham Forest. Slot’s side also needed two stoppage-time goals from Núñez to beat Brentford, a game in which Liverpool had 37 attempts, the most by an away team in recorded Premier League history. Liverpool are in a relatively comfortable position at the top of the table. The nagging doubt is that they know it could and should be so much better.
Arsenal did not produce a consistent, convincing challenge to Liverpool when they had strikers. Yet now they have a glimmer of hope that all is not lost. Liverpool’s visit to the Etihad could extinguish that hope or fuel it. Slot’s team comprehensively outplayed City at Anfield when moving 11 points clear of the reigning champions in December. By Sunday night the gap between Liverpool and City could be a telling 20 points. Slot’s team have the firepower to disappear over the horizon but also recent form for missing an open goal. No better time to be reacquainted with the former.
