It all comes down to this. For history. And, more importantly, for the Florio and Simms full-season competition.
After 272 regular-season games and 12 postseason games, we're one game apart in the straight-up picks contest. I'm 195-89, and he's 194-90. And we disagree on who will win Super Bowl LIX.
If he's right (and he won't be), it's a tie. If I'm right (and I will be), I'll win by two.
Here's why I'll be right. Because when you trust Patrick Mahomes with the first-ever Super Bowl Three-Peat on the line, you can't go wrong.
I know the Eagles are the better team. In every Super Bowl the Chiefs have won with Mahomes at quarterback, that's been the case. All logic points to the Eagles winning the game. And maybe, if this was a regular-season game, they would.
But there's only 60 minutes separating Mahome and history. As our new friend Iñaki Angulo, a journalist from Spain who's covering the Super Bowl in person for the first time, pointed out to me today, it's the most consequential Super Bowl since the Patriots attempted to complete a 19-0 season in Super Bowl XLII. And while the Patriots and Tom Brady failed to pull it off that day — thanks to a masterful defensive game plan concocted by former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spaguolo — Mahomes won't be facing Spagnuolo on Sunday. The Eagles will have to contend with whatever he puts together to slow down the Philly offense.
It won't be easy. Running back Saquon Barkley will gain plenty of yards on the ground. Even if he ends Kansas City's streak of 18 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, Spagnuolo and his players will keep the Eagles from scoring more points than the Chiefs will score. Whatever it takes, Mahomes will find a way to do it.
His only Super Bowl failure, which came against the Buccaneers and Brady, happened at a time when Mahomes had a toe sprain that needed surgery. He was constantly being chased by the Tampa Bay pass rush, and he still gave everything he had to try to will his team to a win.
This time around, Mahomes is healthy. This time around, the man who has made history in his first seven years as a starter has a chance to make the kind of history that no one has ever made.
It won't be easy. The Chiefs could fall behind. They might trail by 10 in the second half, as they have in each of Mahomes's Super Bowl wins. Unless the Eagles can blow the Chiefs off the field, Mahomes will have a chance to make the biggest possible play in the biggest possible spot.
Mahomes remains tormented by his loss in Super Bowl LV. He remains supremely confident that, when his team needs a play, he'll make it. And when the Kansas City defense needs to make a play, someone like defensive tackle Chris Jones will step up.
There's a very underrated, by very real, psychological component to this. For the Eagles players who squandered their 10-point lead to the Chiefs, at some point it will feel like deja vu all over again. The Chiefs will believe it's their time to take the game, and the Eagles will sense it, too.
It's too much to overcome, in my view. We've seen what the Chiefs can do. Even though they aren't as across-the-board potent as they've been in past years, they have the confidence that comes from doing it, over and over and over again. They've lost only one game they tried to win since Christmas Day 2023. And that took a Mahomesian effort from Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who turned a fourth-and-two with the game on the line into a 26-yard touchdown run.
That day in Buffalo, the season wasn't riding on it. This time, everything will be. The season. The trophy. The distinction that will elevate the Chiefs above every other dynasty in football by doing what none has ever done.
Simms believes the talent gap is too great. That between the best offensive line in football, the best running back in football, a franchise quarterback in Jalen Hurts, the best (arguably) receiver tandem, and the best defensive line in football, the Eagles will build — and hold — a lead.
I can understand why he'd think that. I went back and forth and back and forth on it myself. On Wednesday morning, I decided to stop thinking and start trusting my eyes, my memory, and my gut.
After 59 Super Bowls, the time has come for a team to win three in a row. For the first time ever, a team that has won two in a row has gotten back to the Super Bowl again. They have the man who will be known sooner or later (and maybe sooner than later) as the greatest quarterback of all time. They have the coach who will be known sooner or later (and maybe sooner than later) as the greatest coach of all time. It's all right there, within their grasp. They've proven to everyone that, in those moments, they grab it.
Many great quarterbacks and coaches have felt the sting of having to deal with Mahomes and Andy Reid. And I believe it will continue. Chris has the Eagles winning, 38-28. I've got the Chiefs, 27-24.
Even if I'm wrong (and I won't be), I can't stop trusting Mahomes and Reid now. Too much is on the line. And the greater the stakes, the more likely they'll find a way to bridge the talent gap and win in the only statistical category that ever matters — points scored vs. points allowed.
