Miss by an inch, miss by a mile.
Following the ball-spotting controversy in the AFC title game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, the Chinese proverb might as well be a testimonial on the latest flashpoint in NFL officiating. And like some other officiating controversies that developed in playoff games, this one is checking in right on schedule — on the doorstep of commissioner Roger Goodell’s annual state of the league address on Monday. This latest league health checkup coming in New Orleans, no less, which was the site of one of the most egregious missed calls in NFL playoff history, when Los Angeles Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman committed a blatant pass interference against Saints wideout Tommylee Lewis in the 2018 NFC championship game. An influential officiating blunder punctuated by the Rams' 26-23 win over New Orleans and Robey-Coleman’s blunt assessment afterward.
“Oh hell yeah that was [pass interference],” Robey-Coleman said in the wake of the Rams win. “I know I got there before the ball got there. And I whacked his ass.”
While it wasn’t the moment that ultimately decided the game, it did dramatically shift momentum — becoming one of the ugliest and most memorable officiating mistakes that Goodell had to answer for repeatedly in his state of the league address during Super Bowl week. Six years later, it seems Goodell answering for officiating problems is simply part of the tradition, either because of general malaise over how NFL penalties are called (or not called) … or whether there is some kind of bias … or how it impacts the league’s embrace of gambling revenues … on and on.
This time? The crossroads will largely be about how officials spot footballs in the wake of the AFC title game, which was ultimately won by the Chiefs 32-29. But much like the Robey-Coleman moment six years ago, the win came with a measure of controversy — though not quite as blatant. Leading 22-21 early in the fourth quarter and driving for a potential commanding lead, Bills quarterback Josh Allen pushed forward on a four-and-inches play that officials ruled came up short. The moment was immediately washed over in controversy, after television shots appeared to show Allen making the line to gain, but with the spotting judges seeming to arrive at different markers when they approached the spot. The officials found that replays supported Allen having come up short, despite video offering little more than an extremely spirited argument between two fan bases.
The Chiefs go-ahead TD drive was set up by a ruling that Josh Allen did not get a Bills first down.
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Gene Steratore react to the ruling.
"Wow." - Romo
"I felt like he gained it by about a third of the football..." -Steratore
"I agree." - Nantz ????????????️ https://t.co/R4Xs0phM0P pic.twitter.com/8xvT1t1rdn
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 27, 2025
It was a moment that appeared to have a material impact on the game, both from a possession change and a momentum shift. Afterward, Chiefs coach Andy Reid pointed at the moment and reveled in having held the necessary inch to ultimately help win the game. Meanwhile, Bills coach Sean McDermott said he believed Allen had gotten the first down.
The only thing we know for sure it that it’s going to cause an argument that will endure long beyond the game. Particularly of the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and complete their quest to become the first three-peat team in the post-merger NFL era. But in the here and now, Goodell is almost certainly going to get pressed on the moment — in part as an ongoing officiating conspiracy that Kansas City is getting biased calls, but more realistically because it highlights the continued need for a better ball-spotting alternative than the eyesight of officiating crews that doesn’t always provide a definitive answer.
So here are three pressing questions Goodell will have to answer for this time:
Why is the league continuing to rely on the often-obscured vantage point of officials and inconclusive replays to spot footballs when there is a microchip in the football that’s meant to help the process?
If the technology inside the football isn’t good or reliable enough to use, what measure is the league taking (if any) to develop a breakthrough?
What is the timeframe (if any) when a remedy or improvement can be expected?
Finally, how aware is Goodell of the seemingly growing conspiratorial perception among NFL fans that the Chiefs — and specifically Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes — have gotten key calls during games?
For a league that can use technological advances to continue to refine something that shouldn’t have to be a judgement call anymore, the answers to those questions are pretty vital. And even with the Chiefs conspiracy theories, it matters whether the league actually cares about the perceptions, even if they appear to be demonstrably false when it comes to the data. Given the league’s embrace of ancillary gambling revenues, that latter perception now matters. Especially when it impacts the millions of dollars, if not tens of millions — or more — getting wagered on games.
And it’s not just fans that are complaining about the quality or mistakes of officiating anymore, either. Former NFL quarterback and outspoken ESPN analyst Troy Aikman very prominently jumped into the fray during his playoff broadcast between the Chiefs and Houston Texans, which featured Mahomes drawing a personal foul penalty after getting hit on what appeared to be a late slide while running the football. It was the second personal foul drawn by Mahomes in the game.
“Oh, come on,” Aikman said in a disgusted tone. “I mean, he’s a runner and I could not disagree with that one more. He barely gets hit. That’s the second [personal foul] penalty now that’s been called against the Texans. … They’ve got to address it in the offseason. You can’t as a quarterback run around and play games with defenders and then be able to draw a penalty.”
If that had been the end of it, the league certainly would have been overjoyed. But Aikman — who is an influential voice working for a titanic rights-holding partner to the league — went even further when appearing on a Sports Illustrated Media Podcast.
“I know the officials have a tough job,” " target="_blank" class="link"> Aikman said on the podcast. “I mean, the scrutiny that they’re under, as we’ve gotten more advanced with instant replay, those guys, it seems, have become more and more scrutinized. And the game has not become less controversial, the game has become more controversial. But then I just think that we’re at a point that this has tipped a little bit because the league is partners with a number of these gambling services.”
“Here you are promoting gambling, people are gambling more than they ever have before and those types of calls — there’s a lot at stake regardless — but especially when you’re considering there’s a lot of money that’s changing hands with these calls as well. So I think that we owe it to the fans that we get it right and I think we’re at a point in time where we can. We can get it more right. So that was really my position in just trying to lean on the NFL and say, ‘Hey, we've gotta fix this. We've gotta address it in the offseason.’”
You don’t get much more direct criticism than that. Particularly from a broadcasting partner’s star analyst, who is earning tens of millions of dollars in his contract. It has gravity. And it will show up in the questions for Goodell.
That’s not the only thing Goodell is going to get pressed on, of course. Among the other topics that require updates:
The large-picture plans of an 18-game regular season, which appears to be on track as the No. 1 item on the next CBA agenda.
The expanding portfolio of overseas games and what the ultimate goal is where it concerns either foreign-soil expansion or the plotting of a foreign-soil Super Bowl.
The tweaks in ownership rules that allow private equity fund investment and whether the league is becoming more open to accepting direct foreign ownership or sovereign wealth fund investments.
The league’s latest concussion data, which continues to show a drop in occurrence rate.
The league’s ongoing relationship with Jay-Z’s Roc Nation as a civil suit against him and others alleging sexual assault presses forward.
The decline of the NFL’s Pro Bowl as a property, which has continued to see a wilting audience under the skills competition and flag football format.
These will likely all be interspersed in Goodell’s state of league address on Monday. But none will draw curiosity like the ongoing hand-wringing over officiating. Whether it’s by an inch, or a mile.
