Manchester City know anything less than a win against Club Brugge tonight will end their Champions League hopes at the first hurdle.
The Blues collapsed to lose 4-2 to PSG in Paris last week to leave them outside the top 24 and with work to do to ensure a spot in the play-off round. A victory at the Etihad will guarantee a two-legged tie for a spot in the last 16.
The top eight and a direct path to that stage of the competition is beyond City, who will be unseeded for the play-offs should they reach them. There are some European heavyweights who could provide the opposition next month but City's first focus has to be on beating Brugge. And if they do, they could give themselves a draw boost for later down the line.
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City will climb above their opponents with a win while also finishing ahead of at least one of PSG and Stuttgart who begin the final round of fixtures two points above City but face each other. If that game ends in a draw the Blues will finish above both in the standings.
City will also overhaul Sporting Lisbon and Benfica with a victory if the Portuguese pair fail to beat Bologna at home and Juventus away respectively. And should PSV lose at home to Liverpool then Guardiola's men will leapfrog the Dutch side with three points at the Etihad.
What all that means is that City cannot finish 24th and if they avoid finishing 23rd, which is a strong possibility, then they will avoid meeting the two strongest sides in the play-offs.
The play-offs see the sides who finish 9th and 10th play those who finish 23rd and 24th - with a draw to determine the pairings - and so on, meaning the higher up the standings City can climb, the easier the opponent in theory.
And there is an added incentive for avoiding those final two play-off qualification places. UEFA has already loosely determined the draw for the remainder of the knockout stages, meaning should City qualify then they can map out a path to the final.
Finishing above 23rd would mean the Blues would avoid the top two teams - one of which will definitely be Liverpool - while the other is currently Barcelona, until at least the quarter finals.
The congested nature of the league phase table means predicting play-off opponents is a lottery but European heavyweights Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Juventus are potential opposition.
City could also face Premier League rivals Aston Villa, with no restrictions over teams from the same nation playing each other, while a Battle of Britain tie against Celtic is also a possibility.
