It isn’t often Pep Guardiola wishes he had suffered defeat. But as he looks back four months, to what now looks the moment Manchester City’s era of dominance came to an abrupt end, he said: “I would have preferred to lose that game and have Rodri all season, absolutely.”
Guardiola didn’t lose the game in question. John Stones’ 98th-minute equaliser against Arsenal in September seemed colossal in the context of the title race. Not now: or only in the way points have tended to escape Arsenal’s grasp. It was the second of seven games this season they have drawn after leading, despite a heroic defensive display in the second half.
For City, however, the seismic setback had nothing to do with the scoreline. Penalty shootouts aside, they lost a lone game in which Rodri appeared last season: the FA Cup final. They have lost 10 this season: none in the first month after the Spaniard was sidelined, then in a flurry.
Remove Rodri and you stop City? Arsenal appeared to be testing that theory when Kai Havertz barged into him within seconds of kick-off. The Ballon d’Or winner’s knee injury came after a shove from Thomas Partey, albeit more accidental, as they contested a corner.
Rodri was a talisman and the sticking plaster. He was ball-winner and passer, the man who set the tempo and cut out the counter-attacks. He had developed a handy habit of scoring pivotal goals. He had also camouflaged the failings in City’s succession planning. Until, suddenly, they were laid bare.
“The absence for Rodri is massive but it's not just been Rodri,” said Guardiola. “Maybe I am wrong but I cannot prove it, [but] the situation that we had this season was not just Rodri. It was many other things.” Yet Rodri had concealed many of them.
“But of course, the best player in the world absent,” added Guardiola. “Tell me one team in the world who would not notice. Of course we notice.”
Sunday’s reunion with Arsenal contains other notable elements. While City left themselves short-staffed in the transfer market by entering the season with a lone holding midfielder, Mikel Arteta’s squad contains four options: Partey, Jorginho, the summer signing Mikel Merino and Declan Rice. Jorginho was a City target in 2018, Rice in 2023 when they made a £90m bid. The Englishman would have been expensive, but ticked many a box for City.
Arteta uses Rice more as a No. 8. That versatility would have suited City; he could have played alongside Rodri or instead of him. Martin Zubimendi, likely to prove a fifth defensive midfielder Arteta signs, has not been pursued in part due to Guardiola’s reluctance to buy another specialist defensive midfielder; a loan, with Juventus’ Douglas Luiz among those under consideration, would be City’s preference though as the time ticks down in the window, it becomes less likely. There was supposed to be a second No. 6 in the City squad: two years after his arrival, and almost as long since Guardiola decided he did not rate him, the disaster of Kalvin Phillips’ move has cost City as well as a player whose career went into a tailspin.
Meanwhile, Phillips’ old England sidekick would have been ideal in another respect. A couple of weeks after his 26th birthday, Rice is in his physical prime. City’s remaining midfielders are not. Unprompted, Guardiola described them after Wednesday’s win over Brugge as “old”, citing the ages of Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic. Stones and Bernardo Silva, who also wandered into that area of the pitch, are also in their thirties. City lost the generation game by delaying finding the successors to their golden generation. Rodri was supposed to be their resident twenty-something.
And, as Guardiola noted after Saturday’s win over Chelsea, City’s old legs struggle with transitions. “The game was up-and-down, up-and-down,” he said. “And with that, we are the worst team.” It has been the recurring theme without Rodri: City have been caught on the break time and again. Their two insurance policies against the counter-attacks were the Spaniard and Kyle Walker.
Now they have neither. Rodri has at least attempted to contribute verbally. He has sought to gee up his teammates in the tunnel at half-time. He travelled to Paris Saint-Germain. to offer moral support.
“It's lovely to have him in the locker room,” Guardiola said. “His vocal voice, his presence, of course it's important. And when he wants to travel, when do you want to come in special places, of course you can come.”
Rodri’s recuperation is going well. It will not be rushed, though. Guardiola said he does not know if he will be back this season or if he will be named in the Champions League squad for the second half of the campaign.
“The most important right now is to recover well,” he said. “Still, you are not a teenager anymore, but still you have years to play. And it's going to happen if you recover well. To win one month, two weeks and after step back for the next season is not intelligent. So of course he wants it. He would love to play tomorrow. But ACL is ACL.”
And it has been the knee that has changed a season. City, the team who won four league titles in a row, won’t get a fifth. The 2023 Champions League winners will be the underdogs for their reunion with Real Madrid. Without Rodri, the rematch with Arsenal feels altogether smaller. This can’t be billed as a title decider. It is second against fourth as perhaps the ultimate beneficiaries of Rodri’s injury will be Liverpool.
