Overall, the third base group for 2025 is a solid cohort with plenty of players who should offer significant fantasy production. But, in comparison to other positions, the hot corner is full of potential traps once we get past the headliners, José Ramírez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Don’t believe me? Check this out:
— Jazz Chisholm Jr. was absolutely electric as a member of the Yankees (11 HR, 18 SB in 46 games). He also averaged 94 games played across the previous three seasons.
— Rafael Devers was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball until a shoulder injury caused him to hit .168 with a .477 OPS from August 20 before ultimately being was shut down for the season on September 21. The 28-year-old avoided surgery but reported that the injury was traced all the way back to Spring Training, which creates durability concerns for this year.
— Austin Riley looked like a surefire star during the 2024 draft season before hitting .256 with 19 homers in an injury-impacted campaign. Like many Braves sluggers, he is a boom-or-bust early-round pick who is trying to bounce back.
— Royce Lewis is starting to draw comparisons to teammate Byron Buxton in terms of being injury-prone and wildly inconsistent. The 25-year-old could hit .300 with 30 home runs — or could play in 50 games.
— Jordan Westburg was in the midst of a breakout season before missing most of August and September with a broken hand. Fantasy managers are now forced to use a top-100 pick on the basis of four productive months.
— Junior Caminero may be a future superstar and raised his draft stock by having a spectacular season in the Dominican Winter League. He will now require a significant draft investment, which is a risky proposition considering his age (21) and mediocre results (.724 OPS) across 43 MLB games last year.
You see what I mean? Still, the potential stars listed above are worth the risk for many managers since the hot corner provides few exciting sleepers this year. In fact, there are no third basemen who currently have a chof360 ADP between 150-180.
But for those who want to wait, here are some third basemen who could be value picks.
Proactive Targets
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (chof360 ADP: 33.8)
Chisholm has a sky-high ceiling, as he is on the short list of players who could produce 30 homers and 40 steals. The 27-year-old already hit the 40-steal plateau last year, thanks to the Yankees decision to let him run wild (18 steals in 46 games) down the stretch. And playing half his games in New York’s bandbox should help Chisholm to build on the 24 round-trippers he ripped in 2024. There is downside to this injury-prone star, but a high-variance pick is often part of a championship gameplan.
Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles (chof360 ADP: 90.4)
Westburg’s breakout season was cut short by a fractured hand, which is supressing his 2025 draft stock. The youngster’s Statcast page is full of red, as he has logged elite marks in key areas such as average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The combination of his excellent contact skills, improved health and the fences coming in at Camden Yards should lead to Westburg going deep 25-30 times this year. And there is plenty of room for steals growth, as his 91st percentile sprint speed doesn’t line up with his meager total of six from last year.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (chof360 ADP: 106.3)
Like Chisholm, Caminero is a risk worth taking. The youngster didn’t blow away the competition in his first extended Major League trial, but holding his own was a terrific accomplishment for someone who is still just 21 years old. Caminero excelled during the Dominican Winter League season and can hit .280 with 25-30 home runs in his first full year. One caveat — managers should maintain minimal steals expectations from someone with 25th percentile sprint speed.
Fades
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins (chof360 ADP: 72.1)
Lewis could be excellent, but there is not enough risk baked into his current ADP. The 25-year-old is undoubtedly injury prone, as he has spent much more time on the IL than the active roster since he debuted in 2022. And last year, his on-field performance waned for the first time, as he hit .233 with a .747 OPS. Lewis rarely hit the ball hard in 2024 (87.1 mph average exit velocity), and his 28th percentile sprint speed limits his steals potential. He should be going two rounds later.
Mark Vientos, New York Mets (chof360 ADP: 81.9)
Like Lewis, Vientos has a massive range of potential outcomes. The slugger could hit 35 homers across a full season, as his average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and barrel rate (14.1%) are excellent marks. But Vientos scored lowly marks last year in walk rate (8th percentile) and strikeout rate (4th percentile). The plate discipline issues are so extreme that Vientos, who is also a poor defender, could eventually be at risk of losing his starting job.
Value picks at the third base position
These four players have a current ADP between 181 and 246 in chof360 drafts.
Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
At the start of the offseason, Isaac Paredes seemed like an easy candidate for a preseason bust list. After all, his power production took a notable dip since being acquired by the Cubs last summer, and his batted-ball tendencies (plenty of fly balls, mediocre exit velocities) strongly suggested that he was not a good fit for Wrigley Field. But the script flipped when Paredes was traded to Houston, as he will now play half his games at a park that is perfect for his skill set.
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
Josh Jung was a trendy breakout pick last season before injuries limited him to just 46 games. There is little buzz surrounding the slugger this year, but as long as his right wrist seems fine in spring training, Jung remains someone who is capable of producing 25-30 home runs and a solid batting average.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Like Jung, Max Muncy is being downgraded by drafters simply because he missed plenty of time last year. But Muncy’s .232 average was a three-year high, and he maintained a 30-homer pace during the 73 games he played. An on-base machine who plays in baseball’s most talented lineup, Muncy only needs to stay healthy to go deep 30 times while accumulating 180 R+RBI. Roto and category managers will need to plan around his low batting mark, while the 34-year-old is a star in points leagues.
Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs
By late March, Shaw will either be a top-150 pick or a complete afterthought in mixed leagues. The Cubs are ready to give their best prospect every opportunity to win the third base job, and with a lifetime .906 OPS in the minors, the 2023 first-round selection seems ready for the opportunity. Shaw has the diverse skill set that fantasy managers covet, having hit .303 with 29 home runs and 46 steals in 600 MiLB at-bats. And the icing on the cake is that the 23-year-old will open 2025 with triple-position eligibility (2B/3B/SS) in chof360 formats.
Top-12 Third Baseman Draft Rankings for 2025
1. José Ramírez, Guardians
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
3. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees
4. Rafael Devers, Red Sox
5. Austin Riley, Braves
6. Manny Machado, Padres
7. Jordan Westburg, Orioles
8. Junior Caminero, Rays
9. Royce Lewis, Twins
10. Jake Burger, Rangers
11. Mark Vientos, Mets
12. Alex Bregman, Free Agent
