There are less than two weeks remaining in the college basketball regular season and plenty of must-see games ahead that will help shape conference-title races.
All eyes will be on Purdue's matchup against UCLA at 8 p.m. ET Friday night on FOX (watch on FOX and the FOX Sports App). After getting off to a great start in conference play, Matt Painter's team has dropped four in a row and will look to end that losing streak against a UCLA team that sits at 20-8 overall and has put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament, currently projected as a No. 7 seed in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy's latest NCAA Tournament projections.
Speaking of the Big Ten, is there a more entertaining conference race in America? In-state rivals Michigan and Michigan State both sit at 13-3 in the conference, while Wisconsin trails both by 1.5 games. The best part? The Spartans and Wolverines will play each other in the regular-season finale on March 9 with a potential conference title on the line.
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FOX Sports college basketball writers John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to address the top conference races, Purdue's struggles and more as we enter a big weekend of college hoops action.
Let's get to it.
With less than two weeks remaining in the college basketball regular season, which conference title race are you following the closest, and why?
John Fanta: The Big Ten is the tightest race among the high-major conferences with Auburn (SEC), Duke (ACC), Houston (Big 12) and St. John's (Big East) all firmly in the driver's seat in their respective leagues. But in the Big Ten, it's really compelling because Michigan State is 13-3 after making a statement in Ann Arbor over the weekend while Michigan is at 12-3. That said, tournament seeding will be really intriguing in this league in both the Big Ten Tournament, and, with teams trying to show the selection committee why they might deserve to jump a seed line with less than three weeks to go until Selection Sunday.
Led by their "Crab Five," Maryland is one of the biggest headlines nationally right now at 11-5 in the conference, tied with a Wisconsin team that is one of the best offensive groups in the country. UCLA and Purdue are both at 11-6, but I am monitoring them because they seem to be going in different directions with the Boilers having dropped four in a row.
But what makes this race so good is how much the Spartans will be tested down the stretch. Their remaining schedule:
The fact that Izzo's team closes with the Wolverines and that the game could be for the regular-season crown is outstanding for that rivalry! What Dusty May has done in Year 1 is remarkable. The Wolverines continue a four-game homestand with Rutgers on Thursday before hosting Illinois and Maryland. Then, they head to East Lansing.
But that's why the Terrapins are in such a unique position, because they're two back in the loss column but control their own destiny if they can beat both the Spartans and Wolverines.
Michael Cohen: John is correct in that most of the major conference races seem comfortably in hand at this point, ahead of Wednesday night's action: Houston has a 3.5-game lead over Arizona in the Big 12; St. John's has a 2.5-game lead over Creighton in the Big East; Auburn has a 1.5-game lead over Alabama in the SEC; and even though Duke only leads Louisville by one game and Clemson by 1.5 games in the ACC, an easy finishing stretch against Florida State, Wake Forest and North Carolina — all of whom are unranked — should enable the Blue Devils to cruise into the conference tournament, especially considering how well they've been playing since a road loss to Clemson on Feb. 8.
All of which points back to the Big Ten and an unexpectedly compelling race between a Michigan State team that was picked to finish fifth in the preseason media poll and a Michigan team slotted ninth under first-year head coach Dusty May, a real contender for Naismith College Coach of the Year. Both programs are 13-3 in conference play, though the Spartans hold a tiebreaker courtesy of their 75-62 win in Ann Arbor last week, a game in which head coach Tom Izzo's team held the Wolverines scoreless over the final four minutes. The rematch on March 9 at the Breslin Center in East Lansing has the potential to be one of the games of the season in college basketball.
Part of what makes this finishing stretch so fascinating is how backloaded the conference schedules are for both teams. As John noted, Michigan State is partway through a brutal stretch that includes five dates with top-16 opponents in the span of six games. The Spartans fended off then-No. 13 Purdue and then-No. 12 Michigan last week, only to be rewarded with forthcoming games against No. 16 Maryland (road), No. 11 Wisconsin (home) and No. 15 Michigan (home) between now and the conference tournament. The story isn't too dissimilar for the Wolverines, whose final lap includes dates with Rutgers and Illinois — two of the more talented teams in the league when it comes to NBA prospects — and then games against No. 16 Maryland (home) and the finale against No. 8 Michigan State (road).
It should be a fascinating finish.
Purdue was sitting at 11-2 in Big Ten play earlier this month and has since lost four in a row heading into a Friday night showdown with UCLA on FOX. What has gone wrong with the Boilermakers during this stretch, and how can they get back on track?
Michael: The four-game losing streak against then-No. 20 Michigan (75-73), then-No. 16 Wisconsin (94-84), then-No. 14 Michigan State (75-66) and archrival Indiana (73-58) has really exposed Purdue's defensive shortcomings without Zach Edey, the 7-foot-4, 285-pound skyscraper who prowled the low post for four straight seasons before entering the NBA Draft. Edey's size alone deterred opposing guards from driving to the rim and dissuaded opposing big men from attempting to back him down, even with his modest shot-blocking numbers: 2.2 blocks per game last season and 2.1 blocks per game two years ago. That the Boilermakers still ranked among the top 70 in 2-point field goal percentage defense both seasons speaks to how adept Edey was at anchoring the paint. The same can't be said for the 2024-25 roster, which has sunk to 336th in 2-point field goal percentage defense and doesn't have a single player over 235 pounds in the most frequently used lineup from the last five games, according to KenPom. Interior players Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 230) and Caleb Furst (6-10, 235) are far less intimidating than Edey was, and opponents are feasting in the lane. The Boilermakers rank 347th in block percentage this season, down from 168th last year.
Another noteworthy factor is the analytically questionable shot selection of star point guard Braden Smith, who is unquestionably one of the better players in the country at his position but relies heavily on mid-range jumpers that are no longer in vogue. Nearly 29% of Smith's field goal attempts this season are mid-range 2-pointers, according to CBB Analytics, which is more than 17% higher than the national average. And while it's true that Smith makes them at a fairly solid clip — 41.3% so far this season — each one he takes deprives the Boilermakers of a shot closer to the rim or a shot worth more points from beyond the arc. It's difficult to win at an elite level when a team's best player is so reliant on the sport's least-efficient shots, even if he makes a reasonable percentage of them. And here's the most stunning statistic of them all: Even without Edey, the Boilermakers are leaning even more heavily on points scored from 2-point range (50.3% of all baskets) than they did last year (49.3%). That's not a recipe for success. Purdue fans should certainly be worried about another early NCAA Tournament exit, given both the current form and personnel shortcomings of their team.
John: It's really a combination of two things — turnovers and a lack of rim protection. The Boilermakers are just so reliant on Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer that it's allowed opposing teams to key in on that trio defensively and dare C.J. Cox, Caleb Furst, Myles Colvin or Cam Heide to beat them. Nobody in the supporting cast, despite what we thought in the preseason, has evolved the way some thought they could have, and, as a result, it's really on Smith to drive the bus. Sure, Indiana played pretty good defense in the Hoosiers' 73-58 win on Sunday, but just 21 second-half points, 16 turnovers and only nine assists sum up why this team is struggling. Smith is the best guard in America, but even he's showing signs of wearing out, having shot just 2-for-8 in the defeat. Is it fixable? Perhaps. But if one of the big three is not performing well, it leaves Purdue as a candidate to get upset in the NCAA Tournament. Matt Painter has done an amazing job with this group, but the recent struggles show they've been figured out to a degree. Finding their defense and making some tweaks on that end is key because of how much they're giving up in the lane.
Who gets your vote for Coach of the Year honors right now, and why?
John: It has to be Bruce Pearl. His team was not ranked in the preseason AP Top 10, and they've been No. 1 in the country for the majority of the season. To be 25-2 overall and 13-1 in the SEC, which is the best conference we've seen in quite some time in college basketball, is absolutely remarkable. The evolution of Johni Broome into one of the top players in America, coupled with the roster construction of shooting around him between Chad Baker-Mazara, four-star freshman Tahaad Pettiford, Denver Jones and Miles Kelly, who are all shooting over 37% from downtown on the season, makes the Tigers the best offensive group in the country. And that's with a program that always defends and rebounds well. While I believe Rick Pitino resurrecting St. John's, Dennis Gates turning around Missouri and Tom Izzo doing this in Year 30 are all notable storylines, I'd be wrong to not pick Pearl for the job he's done this season with his team. The consensus nationally was that Auburn would be good, but not the top team in America. The Tigers own 14 Quad 1 wins, five more than any other team in the sport.
Remember, Auburn lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Yale last year. The program's ability to bounce back has been impressive, and it could result in the first national championship in school history.
Michael: Pearl certainly feels like the correct choice for all the reasons John outlined, especially if the Tigers roll into the SEC Tournament with just a single conference loss. That would be remarkable considering the depth of talent in this year's SEC. So, for the sake of variety, let's discuss the candidacy of St. John's head coach Rick Pitino, who has the Red Storm sitting at 24-4 overall and 15-2 in the Big East after securing a season sweep of UConn with an emphatic 89-75 win at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. Pitino's team is on the verge of winning the program's first outright Big East title since 1985 and remains undefeated at home so far this season, routinely selling out The World's Most Famous Arena.
Everything that is great about this year's St. John's squad starts with roster construction, as Pitino made excellent use of the Red Storm's robust NIL backing to put together a transfer portal class ranked No. 4 in the country, sandwiched between blue bloods Kansas and Kentucky. His four signees were considered the No. 1 overall player in the portal (Kadary Richmond from Seton Hall), the No. 12 overall player (Deivon Smith from Utah), the No. 119 overall player (Aaron Scott from North Texas) and the No. 214 overall player (Vincent Iwuchukwu from USC), respectively, with three of those newcomers developing into starters. For St. John's to be enjoying such an incredible resurgence while ranking 271st in the country in minutes continuity, which measures the percentage of a team's minutes that are played by the same player from last season to this season, is remarkable. No other coach in consideration for the Naismith College Coach of the Year Award has a team that ranks below the Red Storm in that category, according to KenPom, with only Michigan (266th) and Duke (267th) in the same general ballpark.
And while it's true that St. John's is far from the most aesthetically pleasing team in college basketball — the Red Storm rank 73rd in offensive efficiency and 334th in 3-point percentage, choosing to bully its opponents with relentless offensive rebounding instead — the consistent blend of toughness, tenacity and togetherness that Pitino has inspired continues to offset some of the other shortcomings. Pitino is proving, yet again, why he's considered one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
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