With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and the month of February coming to a close, sports fans across the nation have shifted their attention to college basketball as March Madness is quickly approaching.
This weekend features a loaded slate of games, highlighted by a trio of matchups on FOX: Michigan State vs. Michigan (Friday), Duke vs. Illinois (Saturday) and UConn vs. St. John's (Sunday).
FOX Sports college basketball writers John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to preview all three of those games and more as we enter a big weekend of college hoops action.
College basketball fans will be treated to several must-see games on FOX this weekend, including:
Michigan State vs. Michigan (8 p.m. ET Friday on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
Duke vs. Illinois (8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
UConn vs. St. John's (Noon ET Sunday on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
Which one of these three games should fans be most excited about, and why?
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John Fanta: Friday night has a chance to be theater in Ann Arbor. It's the top-two teams in the Big Ten standings in a bitter rivalry game with a Hall of Famer and new Big Ten wins-leader Tom Izzo meeting one of the sport's newest stars in Dusty May in the first of two meetings between Michigan State and Michigan. I am fascinated to see how Jaxon Kohler and the Spartans match up with a frontcourt duo that's as strong as any in America with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The two combined for 37 points, 21 rebounds and six assists in an 86-83 win over Ohio State on Sunday, their fifth in a row. If Michigan State is going to get a road win, it's because they do enough to limit Wolf and Goldin offensively and their backcourt forces turnovers and finds a way to get easy buckets. Jaden Akins, Jeremy Fears, Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman need to get the offense going for Michigan State, a team that is not strong from the perimeter but does have the depth to cause issues for a defense. On the flip side, when Michigan has avoided those turnovers and Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett are in rhythm, May's team is really tough to beat.
The Wolverines are also unbeaten at home this season. You're talking about two teams that possess top-30 offenses and defenses in KenPom. This game should come down to what Izzo does in regard to containing Wolf and Goldin and which guard emerges as the alpha in this game for either side. It should be an outstanding game and these two teams could still meet twice more, with their rematch coming on March 9 in East Lansing and another potential showdown in the Big Ten Tournament.
While the whole weekend slate on FOX is strong, the mystery of how these two rivals match up coupled with the fact that they're both at the top of the league is why I'll go with the Wolverines and Spartans.
Michael Cohen: The Friday night matchup between No. 12 Michigan and No. 14 Michigan State is almost certainly the most meaningful of the three games given where each team is ranked and the ongoing Big Ten race between them, with the Wolverines leading the Spartans in the conference standings by one-half game. Izzo's team has won five of the last seven and nine of the last 13 over the Wolverines courtesy of a mismatched coaching battle between him and former Michigan head man Juwan Howard from 2019-24. Only twice in the last decade has a ranked Michigan team defeated its in-state rival: a 75-64 victory in New York on March 3, 2018, and a 69-50 win in Ann Arbor on March 4, 2021. The Wolverines' revitalization under first-year head coach Dusty May makes this iteration the rivalry's most interesting tangle in quite some time.
From an NBA perspective, the argument can be made for Saturday night's rare February non-conference battle between Duke and Illinois. The third-ranked Blue Devils are led by the presumptive No. 1 pick in this year's draft, Cooper Flagg, who is averaging 19.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, four assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game in a stat line that reflects his generational talent. He'll be matching wits with Illinois point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, another standout freshman who is expected to be drafted in the top 10, if not the top five. Jakucionis is a versatile playmaker in his own right with averages of 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists.
But the pick of the litter from a storyline perspective is UConn's trip to Madison Square Garden for a showdown with Rick Pitino and St. John's. The Huskies kept their chaotic season alive with a 14-point comeback against Villanova on Tuesday night, and now they'll face the unquestioned best team in the league for a rematch of the hotly contested game at Gampel Pavilion earlier this month. At 22-4 overall and 13-2 in the Big East, the Red Storm have a two-game lead over Marquette as they close in on the school's first league title since 1992. There should be an electric atmosphere in The Garden on Sunday afternoon, from UConn fans and St. John's supporters alike.
Which team ranked outside this week's AP Top 25 Poll has the best chance at making a deep run in this year's NCAA Tournament?
Michael: Even after suffering back-to-back losses to UConn and St. John's in the last week, Creighton is still a team that has the pieces to make the Sweet 16 or beyond. Any conversation about the Bluejays begins with 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner, the three-time reigning Big East Defensive Player of the Year who is well on his way to adding a fourth such award. In his final season of collegiate eligibility, the fifth-year senior increased his scoring average from 17.3 points per game to a career-best 18.7 points per game. He upped his rebounding numbers from 7.6 per game to 8.5 per game and continues to average nearly three blocks per contest without ever fouling out in more than 150 games at Creighton. Few teams in college basketball have a frontcourt that can match Kalkbrenner's combination of size, skill and restraint.
Part of what makes Kalkbrenner so effective is the chemistry he's developed with point guard Steven Ashworth, an undersized dynamo who demonstrates a toughness that begets his common-man frame. Ashworth's nifty handle and elite body control make him a devilish pick-and-roll partner for Kalkbrenner, with the two of them combining to average more than 35 points per game. That Ashworth is lethal from both 3-point range (37%) and the free-throw line (95.2%) will give the Bluejays chances down the stretch nearly every time they step on the court. He's one of the best point guards in the country.
Creighton also has some favorable data points in a broader sense, with an offense that ranks 41st nationally in efficiency and a defense that ranks 30th. Other than a surprising defeat to Georgetown on Dec. 18, the only teams to beat the Bluejays since Nov. 27 are Alabama, Marquette, UConn and St. John's — four programs with high-level coaching and rosters heavy with future pros. With the right draw, head coach Greg McDermott's team is capable of reaching the Elite Eight for the second time in the last three years.
John: There's a team in the top five of the Big 12 standings, and they aren't ranked in the AP Top 25. Additionally, I think they could actually be in the happy zone of the 10 or 11-seed line when it's all said and done, which is where you want to be as a sleeper, because you'd really like to avoid having to play a team on the 1-line in the second round. I'm talking about first-year head coach Kevin Young and BYU.
The Cougars, who heading into Tuesday night landed in Mike Decourcy's "Last Four In," shouldn't be there anymore after a Quad 1 victory over Kansas, 91-57. The 34-point margin of defeat for Bill Self matched the largest loss of his 22-year tenure. BYU sits at 19th in the Torvik ratings and just outside the top 30 in KenPom. The Cougars are in the top three in the conference in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage, along with ranking second in the league with a +6.8 rebounding margin, which sits ahead of national title contenders Houston and Iowa State. But any dark horse candidate in the NCAA Tournament has to bury 3-pointers, the great equalizer against any heavyweight. Young, who came from the Phoenix Suns and plays a modern style of basketball, encourages his teams to let it fly from downtown, and they're posting 10.5 made triples per game.
Junior guard Richie Saunders can score in a variety of ways, boasting seven performances of 20-or-more points, while freshman Egor Demin is a really good playmaker, and fifth-year senior Trevin Knell is the X-factor that can swing the team in a different direction.
If I were to pick three mid-major candidates for your bracket, keep an eye on Akron, Yale and Drake. All three are fully capable of a tournament win, if not two.
St. John's sits at 22-4 overall and 13-2 in the Big East, good for first place in the league standings. Rick Pitino's team has relied on exceptional defense and rebounding, but the Johnnies rank in the bottom-20 nationally in 3-point percentage and 299th in free-throw percentage. Can this style of play translate to NCAA Tournament success?
John: That's a great question, and how about this answer? Since 2012, only two teams have made the Final Four while shooting 33.1% or worse from 3-point range: 2012 Louisville at 31.8% and 2013 Louisville at 33.1%.
Both were coached by Rick Pitino!
Think about how ridiculous that is, and now the 72-year-old has recreated the formula at St. John's with a top-10 team in the country. It's simply remarkable. The Red Storm can have NCAA Tournament success because they put the shooting struggles to bed with how much it's negated – and then some – by their defensive DNA. The Johnnies are relentless on that end of the floor, currently coming in as the No. 2 team in the country in KenPom defensive efficiency. They take teams out of their offensive game plans, swarming them for 40 minutes and eventually wearing them out. The Red Storm also have the guard play and finishing ability to cash in on the other end of the floor.
Earlier this month, when the Johnnies beat UConn at Gampel Pavilion, it was jarring to see the Huskies struggle to run their offense, turning the ball over 22 times, including a late sequence that saw three straight giveaways. With Kadary Richmond and RJ Luis Jr.'s shooting ability off the dribble and Zuby Ejiofor's relentless nature on the glass, the Red Storm have a formula that's really hard to simulate for an opponent preparing to face them.
The Johnnies have a two-game cushion in the Big East and are seeking their first conference regular-season title since Lou Carnesecca's final season in 1992. The late, great Carnesecca would be proud of how hard this team plays.
Michael: With a minimum of six games remaining after Wednesday's clash with DePaul, the Red Storm have already recorded the program's highest win count since the magical 1999-2000 season in which former head coach Mike Jarvis guided St. John's to a Big East Tournament title. That Pitino's team has only dropped four games overall and has never suffered back-to-back defeats are reasons enough to believe this group can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, perhaps even flirting with the school's first Final Four appearance since 1985. But in reality, any jaunt beyond the first weekend would be welcome for a school that last reached the Sweet 16 in 1999, at which point Pitino was coaching the Boston Celtics. The nation's second-best defense in terms of points per possession will keep St. John's close in most games, especially when Pitino sprinkles in the full-court press that has confounded opponents, as John noted. And while the offense only ranks 79th in efficiency — due in large part to a 23% point distribution from 3-point range, which places the Red Storm outside the top 350 teams in the country — Pitino still has three double-figure scorers in Luis (17.6 points per game), Ejiofor (13.9 points per game) and Richmond (12.6 points per game), plus three more players chipping in at least 8.7 points per game.
But last week's 73-71 road loss to unranked Villanova was not without cause for concern considering how well St. John's shot from beyond the arc. Pitino's team buried 11 3-pointers on 37 attempts that night to match the Wildcats' tally of 11 triples on 24 attempts. Only once this season have the Red Storm made more 3-pointers in a single game than they did against Villanova — 14 of them in a November loss to then-No. 13 Baylor — and it was the first time they'd made more than eight 3-pointers against a Big East opponent. So what happened? How did they lose? Pitino's team came up on the wrong end of the free-throw battle, the steal battle, the turnover battle and scored fewer points in the paint than Villanova. There's no question the Red Storm are an excellent outfit that can — and should — cause opponents problems come March. But that doesn't mean St. John's is infallible.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
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