The freight market has been all over the place for small carriers, and right now, there’s a feeling that something’s about to give. The big question is whether this shift is going to work in your favor or just keep the squeeze on spot market rates a little longer.
Truckload demand (the need for your services as a small carrier) is still 16% lower than it was last September, but we’re also seeing some carriers tap out. That means fewer trucks on the road but not enough freight demand to make shippers and brokers start bidding up rates. At least, not yet.
If you’re running off the load board, you have to be locked in on two things:
Stop chasing loads – start tracking trends. The worst thing you can do right now is grab whatever pops up first. Instead, pull up your past 30 days of freight. Where did you get stuck? Where did you find the best reloads? If a lane burned you last month, it’s probably not better now. Adjust.
Set a minimum rate per mile and stick to it. If you don’t know what you need to run profitably, the brokers sure aren’t going to tell you. The national spot rate is $2.29 a mile, but that number means nothing if your cost to operate is higher. Lock in your breakeven number and don’t move below it.
The carriers winning right now aren’t just “grinding it out.” They’re making deliberate, data-backed decisions on where they run and what they haul.
More carriers are moving away from the spot market and locking in contract freight because the rates are holding up better. If you’re still running off the load board, you’ve probably noticed that brokers aren’t moving on rates, and negotiating a decent payout is getting tougher by the day.
The numbers back it up. The national spot rate has dropped from $2.42 last month to $2.29 today, a 5.4% decline in just four weeks. That’s happening even as some smaller carriers exit the market. But don’t expect this to force rates up yet – there are still enough trucks out there to cover demand, so shippers aren’t feeling the heat to pay more.
On paper, freight volumes are rising, but here’s the catch – contract carriers aren’t rejecting loads like they used to. Instead, they’re taking whatever is available just to keep rolling. That means higher load volume isn’t translating to better rates.
Here’s where the best outbound demand growth is happening:
Columbus (+19.5%)
Kansas City (+18.5%)
Memphis (+16%)
If you’re looking for better load board opportunities, these are the markets to watch. But if you’re running into these cities, be smart – have a reload lined up before you roll in.
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Meanwhile, Stockton, Tifton and Nashville, Tennessee, are slowing down. If you’re running into those markets, expect fewer options and weaker rates.
Some carriers are leaving but not fast enough to push rates up.
Spot rates are still dropping, even as capacity shrinks.
The big question: Is this the start of a rate rebound, or will brokers and shippers keep control of the market?
If you’re still running the spot market, you can’t afford to just hope rates will bounce back. You have to play this market smart.
Before we even see a real rate shift, another big deadline is on the horizon that could put some trucks out of service.
Starting April 1, the CVSA’s new Out-of-Service (OOS) criteria go into effect, bringing stricter rules on brakes, tires, suspension and driver qualifications (FreightWaves).
Brake systems: If your electrical cable or service gladhand is unplugged, that’s an automatic violation. (Example, hotshotters with breakaway cables unattached.)
Tires: Sidewall leaks? That’s an immediate OOS violation.
Suspension: Cracked U-bolt bottom plates? You’re sidelined until it’s fixed.
Driver restrictions: Failed a drug test? You can’t even be in the truck if the driver has a commercial learner’s permit (CLP).
If the market is changing, standing still isn’t an option. The carriers that make the right moves first will be the ones keeping their profits intact. Here’s what you need to act on right now.
Go where the freight is moving. Columbus, Kansas City and Memphis are heating up. If you’re running spot freight, these are the lanes where you’ll have potentially more options. But remember: This market is fluid. These can change at a moment’s notice.
Stay away from cooling markets. Stockton, Tifton and Nashville are losing steam. Don’t get stuck somewhere with no reloads.
Plan your backhauls before you book. Deadheading eats profit. Know where you’re getting your next load before you even drop the first one.
Check your equipment now. If your brakes, tires or suspension have issues, fix them before an inspector shuts you down.
Keep your medical card up to date. No valid certification means you’re sidelined, no questions asked.
Know the new ride-along rules. If you’re training a new CDL driver, make sure you’re compliant – violations can cost you more than just time.
Shorter lanes, faster turnarounds. Long-haul rates aren’t where they need to be. High-turnover lanes will keep cash flowing.
Push back on low rates. Brokers aren’t going to pay more unless you demand it. Know your numbers and don’t take loads that put you in the red.
Cut every unnecessary cost. Fuel, maintenance and downtime add up fast. If it doesn’t make you money, it’s costing you money.
This isn’t the time to hope the market turns in your favor. Make the right moves now, or you’ll be playing catch-up later.
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