Summary
Back in November, we talked about certain indices running into psychological or large-number resistance. This took on more significance because the indices were extended after rallying hard off their August lows. With the strength of the indices in November, January, and February, we thought the issue was put to bed as the NYSE and the Nasdaq cleared 20,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) jumped over 6,000. But as we have said many times, support and resistance are areas -- not an exact point. So months later, the SPX is back below 6,000, and the NYSE and the Nasdaq are already below 20,000. We also have said that breakouts over resistance should be strong, with volume and follow-through action. And that did not happen. We are again getting concerned about the intermediate term. We are seeing five-day/13-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossover sell signals on the major indices. But more disturbing is the mounting weekly momentum divergences. The weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD), which peaked in March 2024, has now traced out two bearish divergences, while the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has traced out at least five bearish divergences. So we have almost a year of non-confirmation from momentum. The weekly Coppock Curve peaked in February 202
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