United States President Donald Trump announced a pause on US military assistance to Ukraine on Monday, amid splintering relations with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The US has been Ukraine’s single biggest supplier of defence aid since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of the Eastern European country in February 2022, apart from serving as the diplomatic fulcrum around which a broad coalition of nations has backed Kyiv against Moscow.
But the pause on military help comes after increasingly public criticisms of Zelenskyy from Trump and his senior officials, at a time when Ukraine has been asking for just the opposite – that the US strengthen its hand before peace negotiations with Russia being pushed for by Trump.
So what exactly has Trump halted, why has he done that, and can Ukraine continue to fight Russia without new US military aid?
What happened?
After mounting tensions with Zelenskyy, Trump paused military aid to Kyiv, US media outlets reported on Monday, quoting unnamed US officials who insisted that the president wasn’t convinced that Zelenskyy was committed to peace.
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The news of the pause came hours after Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, accusing Zelenskyy of not wanting to end the war for “as long he has America’s backing”.
The pause will persist until Ukraine displays a commitment to peace negotiations with Russia, The Associated Press reported, quoting an unnamed White House official.
Why did the US pause the military aid?
Prior to Trump’s pause and the Truth Social post, Zelenskyy had said the end of the Ukraine war “is still very, very far away”, during a briefing in Kyiv on Sunday.
“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!” Trump responded on Truth Social.
Zelenskyy met with Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Oval Office in the White House on February 28. The tone of their press interaction quickly turned hostile when Trump and Vance accused the Ukrainian leader of not being thankful enough for the military assistance sent by the US to Kyiv.
One month into his inauguration, Trump has shifted the US policy on the Ukraine war to be more open to communication with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Last month, officials from Washington and Moscow met for peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia with Ukraine and Europe not invited to join them.
When Zelenskyy and his European allies voiced discontent about this, Trump accused the Ukrainian president of starting the war, triggering a tense exchange of words between himself and Zelenskyy.
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Despite recent tensions with Trump, Zelenskyy on Sunday said, “I think our relationship (with the US) will continue, because it’s more than an occasional relationship.”
Then came Trump’s bombshell announcement that the US would freeze all military assistance to Ukraine.
How much military aid has the US promised Ukraine?
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that marked the beginning of this war, the US government appropriated about $86bn to send to Ukraine in military aid from Congress and Department of Defense (DoD) budgets, according to calculations made by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), using DoD budget documents.
These funds were pledged through multiple mechanisms, including $46bn through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), $33bn through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and $7bn through what is known as Foreign Military Financing (FMF).
The money allocated by the US is primarily funding that goes into the manufacture of weapons shipped to Ukraine. These include air defence systems, missiles, helicopters, tanks, coastal defence systems and body armour. Some of the money is also meant to replenish depleted US stocks of weapons and ammunition that were rushed to Ukraine to help it fight Russia.
But crucially, most of the money that the US government has appropriated for the support of Ukraine’s military defence has not yet been disbursed, according to the CSIS analysis.
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What exactly is on pause?
Potentially, tens of billions of dollars in military help.
The White House has not yet spelt out exactly what the pause entails, but in theory, it could include a halt on the supply of not just future aid, but all the money that has been appropriated to help Ukraine – and that hasn’t yet reached Kyiv in the form of weapons or other military assistance.
Since assuming office, Trump has not approved any new aid packages to Ukraine. So the aid packages that could be suspended are ones that were approved by former President Joe Biden.
Of the $86bn funds appropriated, only $20.2bn has been actually dispensed to Ukraine, according to the CSIS analysis.
Another $28.6bn has been committed, which means the US Defense Department has announced how it plans to use the funds. And a bucket of $34.2bn has been obligated, which means the government has signed contracts to produce equipment. The pause could potentially mean that the US does not allow any of this to reach Ukraine until Zelenskyy mends ties with Trump.
Some of the pledged aid, about $2.7bn, has expired before it was used since it wasn’t acted on within timelines stipulated during the appropriation.
Planned deliveries for 2025 included munitions for a type of artillery weapons called howitzers, as well as air defence systems, Mark Cancian, a former US Marine Corps colonel and a senior adviser with CSIS, told Al Jazeera.
How much does Ukraine depend on US weapons?
Not as much as it once did.
Ukraine has scrambled during the war to ramp up its own defence production capabilities, the country’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced last year.
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Zelenskyy told British journalist Piers Morgan in an interview published on February 4 that Ukraine now produces 40 percent of the weapons it needs, while the US supplies 30 percent. “You can imagine what would happen to us without this crucial 30 percent,” Zelenskyy told Morgan. Ukraine largely produces drones, electronic warfare systems and artillery, Zelenskyy told a news conference on February 19.
The remaining 30 percent of Ukraine’s weapons come from other sources, including Europe.
But the weapons that the US has supplied to Ukraine are the deadliest and most cutting-edge in the Eastern European nation’s arsenal.
Can Ukraine continue the fight without the US?
Cancian said without military aid from the US, Ukrainian forces may only be able to hold out for two to four months before Russia breaks through their lines.
“Pausing US aid deliveries cuts about half of Ukraine’s acquisition of weapons, munitions, and supplies. As it was, Ukraine was barely hanging on with the Russians hammering their front lines and making continuous though expensive gains,” said Cancian.
“Without the US military aid, Ukrainian forces will gradually lose combat capability. My guess is that the Ukrainians can hold out for two to four months before their lines buckle and the Russians break through.”
Could Europe fill this gap?
“European military aid has approximately matched US military aid so far. Filling the gap in an extended pause of US aid would require substantially increased commitment from Europe,” Cancian said.
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“That said, weapons do not materialise overnight. It will take time for any new European commitments to be delivered to Ukraine – it will be difficult for Europe to immediately fill the gap in equipment deliveries.”
European leaders have recently been discussing how they might provide security guarantees to Kyiv. During a security summit in London on Sunday attended by Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a group of European leaders discussed that it was essential to continue the flow of weapons to Ukraine. Additionally, Starmer announced a 1.6-billion-pound ($2bn) deal, allowing Ukraine to spend the amount on 5,000 air defence missiles.
However, it is unclear how much military assistance Ukraine’s European allies will be able to provide and whether they will bridge the gap left by Trump’s halt. Zelenskyy and European leaders have acknowledged that Washington’s support is critical in reaching the end of the war in Ukraine. “To support peace in our continent and to succeed, this effort must have strong US backing,” Starmer said after Sunday’s summit.
Roughly $300bn of Russian Central Bank assets were frozen by the US and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a punitive measure. Now, calls from European governments such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are growing for the transfer of these assets to Ukraine. “The Europeans could tap into that to purchase additional weapons but that would be a major policy shift,” Cancian said.
However, French President Emmanuel Macron has resisted using the frozen Russian assets, fearing it would breach the principle of immunity over foreign assets and turn away foreign investors such as China and Saudi Arabia.
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What are the reactions to Trump’s aid freeze?
Trump’s decision has drawn ire from Democrats.
Pennsylvania Congressman Brendan Boyle called Trump’s decision “reckless, indefensible, and a direct threat to our national security” in a press release on Monday.
“This aid was approved by Congress on a bipartisan basis – Republicans and Democrats alike recognized that standing with Ukraine is standing for democracy and against Putin’s aggression,” Boyle added.
Democratic Representative Dan Goldman said Trump’s new move is “another extortion of President Zelenskyy”.
