The difference is a mere 0.1 of a ranking point. And rankings, in isolation, do not necessarily foretell the future. Even so the news that Wales have slipped to 12th in World Rugby’s official pecking order, one place below Georgia, was a hugely symbolic moment. After 14 Test defeats in succession, another unwanted record, it was a new low in a season increasingly full of them.
Faith seems to be ebbing away, too. “It can’t carry on like this,” their erstwhile fly-half Dan Biggar said on ITV Sport over the weekend. “That looks like a team shot of belief and confidence.” Sam Warburton, who was leading Wales to Six Nations titles and grand slams not so long ago, was similarly downbeat as he sifted through the ashes of the defeat against Italy in Rome on Saturday. Neither were putting the boot in for the sake of it, they were just saying it as it is.
Related: Gatland has sympathy for nation’s frustration as sorry Wales slump again
Warburton, for example, pointed out Wales had made 13 first-phase carries in the first half against the Azzurri. For a total of one metre gained. Talk about a stat to sum up Wales’s predicament. Their forwards are running head first into a brick wall and the wall is winning. “There were times in that second half when I thought it was the most depressing and hopeless performance that I’ve seen from Wales,” said Gwyn Jones, another frustrated ex-Welsh skipper, on the BBC’s Scrum V.
At this point those with long memories will shake their heads sorrowfully and suggest alternative occasions when Wales have arguably been at a lower ebb. Losing 96-13 in South Africa in 1998, for example, or being beaten at home by Western Samoa in 1991. They eventually rebounded from those embarrassments and have won more Six Nations titles over the past 20 years – six – than England and Scotland combined.
But it is starting to feel like one of those cartoons where Wile E Coyote accelerates off a cliff and hangs briefly in midair until gravity takes over, Wales are not so much drifting slowly downwards as nose-diving at a frightening rate. Their next three games – at home against Ireland, away against Scotland and home against England – seem unlikely to cushion their descent.
It could get worse if the two-Test tour to Japan this summer yields further disappointment. Defeats in Kitakyushu and Kobe could result in Wales dropping out of the world’s top dozen sides, condemning them to a potentially fiendish draw at the 2027 Rugby World Cup. And on it goes. Down, down, deeper on down.
No one with an ounce of rugby soul wants to see Welsh rugby sink any lower. There is still no finer place to be on an international weekend than inside the Principality Stadium, with the anthems soaring and passion (or something like it) dripping off the roof. As Max Boyce told the Guardian this time last year: “The Six Nations needs a strong Welsh team. It’s a manifestation of the nation.”
But amid all the finger-pointing – and the blame clearly extends way beyond one or two individuals – and issues surrounding the regional game, there is another significant dimension to consider. If Wales really are at rock bottom and in danger of collecting annual Six Nations wooden spoons indefinitely, what does that do for the health of the tournament more generally?
It is a question that was once thrown repeatedly at Italy when they were rooted to the bottom of the table. Now, as it happens, the Azzurri have lost just one of their past five Six Nations fixtures. The Italians always argued, rightly, that jettisoning them would be a backward step, not just for Italian rugby but for the development of the sport in continental Europe.
As a private competition, of course, it remains very much in the organisers’ gift to stick to the status quo. But that unblinking stance will become harder and harder to maintain if Welsh rugby fails to snap out of its doom loop in the not-too-distant future. Georgia are transparently too good for the shadow Rugby Europe Championship, Portugal played some fabulous rugby at the last World Cup and Spain have also just qualified automatically for the 2027 tournament.
So will the door one day creak open slightly? Last month, the Breakdown duly asked the ritual annual promotion/relegation question and received the kind of quizzical look you get if you ask a non-dom whether he misses paying UK income tax. There are no plans to change anything, we were told. Before being reminded that the 12-team Autumn Nations Series will, theoretically, involve promotion and relegation from 2030.
Heaven forbid, in other words, that the Six Nations should embrace the dangerous notion of meritocracy over tradition (and more guaranteed cash). Never mind that Georgia are potentially 10 points better than Wales right now. Nor the volume of potential interest it would generate in Portugal, Spain and across the rest of Europe if the Six Nations were to become a Seven Nations army, with one up and down each year.
Maybe Wales would see off Georgia in Tbilisi (political situation permitting) or Spain in Madrid and stay up. Maybe they wouldn’t. But would that be any worse a prospect than the endless twilight zone in which they now find themselves? And what gives Wales, or anyone else, the divine right to Six Nations membership anyway? When the winds of change finally blow, everyone will wonder why it took so long.
French homework
Just occasionally the post-match stats reveal a fact so remarkable it is hard to believe it can possibly be accurate. According to the official figures, France made just one dominant tackle in 80 minutes against England on Saturday. And the man taking the solitary fight to England? Their youthful wing Louis Bielle-Biarrey. Add that to the 19 turnovers conceded by the visitors, the 30 missed tackles and the litany of dropped balls that cost at least four tries and you have to say France gave England a helping hand in their 26-25 defeat in south-west London. Were France overly complacent before the game? The stats would suggest so. Either way, Les Bleus will have to improve significantly to defeat undefeated Ireland in round four.
One to watch
The new Super Rugby Pacific season kicks off this weekend with 11 sides involved, 10 of them chasing the Blues who hoisted the trophy last year. The 2025 tournament will be monitored closely by, among others, Andy Farrell before the British & Irish Lions tour to Australia. If the Australian sides – minus the now defunct Melbourne Rebels – can make an impression it will be a timely boost to Wallaby hopes of upsetting the Lions in July and August. If they struggle badly, on the other hand …
Memory lane
Ireland recorded an 11th consecutive victory against the Scots in this year’s Six Nations on Sunday as they continued a dominant run against them. Ireland have been in the ascendancy over Scotland for most of this century. In 2004, when Brian O’Driscoll won his 50th cap, the then 25-year-old captain led Ireland to a 37-16 defeat of Scotland in Dublin on the way to their first triple crown since 1985. That victory in the early noughties came in the middle of seven straight wins against Scotland. In the 1990s, Scotland won every match between the two bar a 6-6 draw in 1994.
Still want more?
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England’s dramatic late win against France in the Six Nations has Gerard Meagher asking whether this is a true dawn for Borthwick’s team.
Les Bleus don’t like to lose, but quintessentially annoying behaviour from English players (in their opinion) makes it so much worse, writes Andy Bull.
