It was an unusual analogy from the administrator running what sells itself as the toughest sport in the world. “It’s like a game of Tetris,” NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo said of planning the future of rugby league. After the Las Vegas showcase last weekend, the 2025 competition makes its Australian bow on Thursday with a clash between the Roosters and Broncos in Sydney.
The GameBoy puzzle classic seems to have little in common with league, at least since the retirement of Glenn Lazarus, the brick with eyes. But the connection turned out to be literal, as Abdo also confirmed the first rugby league videogame in eight years was due in 2025. More than that, however, Abdo likened his role to a Tetris player given the challenges and opportunities faced by the competition as it enters its 118th year: of player welfare, expansion, and – most critically – broadcast negotiations.
“Step one for us is to make sure that we have our content in order, our season structure, the number of teams and how we want to package that up,” the South African-born administrator explained on rugby league podcast Hello Sport this week. “And then, obviously, we want as many entities as possible bidding for those rights.”
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As the game prepares to go to market this year for the next round of broadcast rights starting in 2028, the problem for Abdo and Australian Rugby League Commission chair Peter V’landys, is they don’t yet know what they can sell. Expansion to PNG in 2028 was confirmed late last year, and a long-mooted-but-not-yet realised WA franchise is the game’s priority, particularly given the lack of other options. On adding a third new franchise, Abdo said “it’s going to be difficult to see us getting to 20,” meaning 19 teams – and nine games per round – will be all the NRL can offer going into 2028.
Broadcasting is the largest single component of NRL’s $745m revenue in 2024, up by $43m on 2023. With a broadcast deal worth around $400m each year – largely from Foxtel and Channel Nine – television is rugby league’s economic engine room. But declining advertising revenue has been experienced at networks Nine and Seven in the past year, and the direction of Foxtel given its acquisition by international streamer Dazn – currently awaiting ACCC and FIRB approval – also remains in flux.
This dynamic means there is no guarantee the NRL will see the kind of uplift achieved by the AFL in signing its seven-year $4.5bn (approximately $640m a year) deal with Seven and Foxtel in 2022, even though four of the five top free-to-air television audiences in 2024 were for rugby league matches.
The league’s Las Vegas foray has created another showpiece occasion on the calendar, which triggered Foxtel’s largest single day of sign-ups last year. Add in UK and New Zealand viewer numbers, and the audience for this year’s Las Vegas showcase is likely to exceed the 2024 edition. But growth is not automatic. Nine’s Vegas audience was down slightly according to ratings provider VOZ, from 796,000 last year to 715,000 in 2025, highlighting the NRL’s need to pursue new audiences from Perth, to Port Moresby and beyond.
One broadcast rights expert who wished to remain anonymous believes the NRL will be unlikely to generate the same level of competitive tension with legacy broadcasters and streamers that has been enjoyed by sports in England and the US in recent years. The expectations of the Australian public for a large share of free-to-air content, underpinned by the anti-siphoning regime, and a lack of international interest in rugby league – apart from in the Pacific and northern England – means the likes of Amazon and Netflix are unlikely to pay overs for what remains a provincial game.
The next 12 months is therefore vital in the NRL optimising what it can control. Head office has told referees to watch out for players milking obstruction penalties in 2025, but after radical changes with set restarts and high tackle punishments in recent years, fans can feel confident in the rules staying relatively stable.
The Women’s State of Origin series was extended to three matches last year, but its timing at the start of the NRLW season meant some players came into the women’s showpiece underdone. The Jillaroos’ place at Las Vegas is also under threat, after V’landys said four games was “probably too much”. While two teams enter the NRLW this year – Canterbury and the re-joining Warriors – and push the season to 11 matches, female players still want a longer calendar.
The men’s competition could go the other way. Abdo has flagged the NRL season could compress in the next broadcast cycle from its 24-match, 27-round schedule to fewer contests “with a bit more meaning”, noting the physical limits of players. The Rugby League Players’ Association have said training loads and the accumulation of non-concussive impacts looms as a central issue in coming years.
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But one of the most influential decisions in rugby league’s year might not come from a rugby league official, broadcaster, player or coach. The contract of Matildas attacker Mary Fowler with Manchester City expires midway through next year, meaning a decision on her next move is expected to arrive in the next 12 months.
Her boyfriend Nathan Cleary, also the best player in the NRL and halfback for a Panthers side chasing a fifth-straight premiership, has ruled out a move to rugby union and says he wants to stay in rugby league. His contract with Penrith expires at the end of 2027, just as the new broadcast dollars – and a team from PNG – are expected to flood into the game. Fowler has PNG ties through her mother Nido, who is from a village near Port Moresby. It’s a situation that has even Abdo wondering what might be.
“There will be a lot of people that are Mary Fowler fans that now are interested in rugby league. A lot of people know nothing about sport, but are interested in the romance between the two,” he said. “And obviously, if Nathan was playing for PNG down the track, that would be pretty interesting as well.”
