With the dust settling on Formula One’s pre-season test in Bahrain, it is time to take stock of where the teams are ahead of the start of the season in Australia on March 16.
Here, Telegraph Sport assesses how things look and tries to break down some of the intrigue after three days of running in the desert.
McLaren still the team to beat
Last season McLaren won their first constructors’ championship in 25 years and clearly had the best all-round car in the second half of the season. Has anything changed since then? It does not appear so. At no point were they in a great rush to rack up the laps, which signals a quiet confidence in what they have produced with the MCL39.
It was Lando Norris’s long run pace on Thursday evening that stood out, however. McLaren, Ferrari (with Charles Leclerc) and Mercedes (with Kimi Antonelli) all ran 57-lap race simulations towards the end of the second day. Bahrain is usually a place where McLaren struggle, but that was not the case here.
In the final reckoning, Norris was more than half a minute faster than Leclerc. The McLaren driver was particularly impressive when it came to maintaining and improving his pace throughout a stint, which suggests excellent tyre management.
There are some caveats, though, as is always the case in testing. First, Norris was on a more favourable combination of tyres than his rivals. Secondly, the conditions were fairly benign, being cooler and calmer and unrepresentative of a grand prix – or days one and three of the test.
McLaren were keen to downplay this performance and Norris says he wants the rear end to improve. Still, it is hard to think they will not be the team to beat in Melbourne in a fortnight.
Hamilton and Ferrari should be challengers
There is no doubt that the biggest storyline of this season is Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari. There is also no doubt that he is feeling good about his switch to the Scuderia. It is easy to feel that way at this point of the season, though. If he qualifies ninth and finishes seventh in Melbourne he is unlikely to be quite as upbeat.
What are the early signs in testing? Hamilton looks to have bedded in smoothly and his performance was largely comparable to Leclerc’s. Yet on day one Telegraph Sport columnist Gary Anderson noticed that the SF-25 did not look all that benign in the morning running in Hamilton’s hands. Ferrari, however, did appear to dial some of that out in the following days.
Hamilton also said on the final day that Ferrari “had work to do”. In short, the signals have been mixed to positive. Given how Ferrari ended last season, we should expect them to be in the fight but not leading it. That said, having a competitive car is only half of the equation for Hamilton – beating Leclerc is more important.
Will Lawson see out the season at Red Bull?
Liam Lawson faces the unenviable task of being Max Verstappen’s team-mate at Red Bull. It is almost an impossible job. The Kiwi has only raced in 11 grands prix in two stints across 2023 and 2024. While he impressed at being thrown into the deep end at the Red Bull junior team, going up against the strongest driver on the grid is another level altogether.
You have to question the wisdom of Red Bull’s decision when Carlos Sainz (206 grands prix and four wins) was available. Even putting Yuki Tsunoda (87 races) in there would have made some sense. Yet the team clearly see something in Lawson that they do not in Tsunoda.
How did testing go for Lawson? Well, there was a big spin on the opening day, though that is no disaster. His running was hampered with the rain on day two and what he called a few “teething problems”. He did not run on the final day at all, though that was planned.
Ultimately, he never looked as comfortable as Verstappen behind the wheel of the RB21. We should expect that to continue throughout the early part of the season. The bottom line for him will be how he is shaping up after eight or nine rounds. It would be an achievement (and a surprise) if he is in place at the end of the season.
Overall, Red Bull looked in decent shape, but they were harder to get a gauge on than some of the other teams because of their lack of significant race simulations.
Antonelli immediately on the pace
Another team that opted against the experience and skills of Sainz were Mercedes. The team clearly believe that teenager Andrea “Kimi” Antonelli has the talent – and perhaps the capability – to make his mark on F1. His first run in an F1 car on a grand-prix weekend ended in the barriers in Monza, but his pre-season was untroubled.
As with Lawson, he will not be judged too harshly on how close he is to team-mate George Russell in the first handful of races, but by where he is later on in the season. On what we have seen so far, he could give the Briton a few headaches towards the end of the year if he can unlock his raw pace and ability.
Williams could upset the midfield
As is almost always the case in testing, there is one team who catch the eye with their lap times, usually because they are a bit out of position. This year it was Williams. New man Sainz was fastest of anyone – and with the most laps, too – on day two.
Williams, clearly, are not going to be troubling the top four teams at the start of the year, but you do not top the timesheets if you are having significant problems. Notable was that Sainz’s time on day two was faster than Williams’ best qualifying lap in the race here in 2024, as was Alex Albon’s time on day three.
A good winter for Williams could see them leap ahead of teams such as Haas, Alpine and maybe even Aston Martin, but they should be content with progress of any kind.
